Headline inflation remained in negative territory last month but core inflation continued to recover and is now at its highest in almost a year. This improvement looks fragile, however, and we still...

Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the...

While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree...

Wage growth looks set to slow from 4.5% last year to around 3% by the end of 2025, leaving it within touching distance of the 2.5% rate we think is consistent with the ECB’s inflation target.