The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%...

The muted 0.1% m/m rise in the core CPI in May is not quite as good as it looks, with our preliminary estimate pointing to a 0.20% rise in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator ahead of the PPI data...

Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence...

The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazil’s headline inflation, to 5.3% y/y, was driven by weaker food inflation. Underlying price pressures continued to strengthen and, against that backdrop...