The further gains in GDP in the ICT industries in the third quarter, despite another fall in employment, is a clear sign to us that AI is boosting productivity. While other factors help to explain the...

The large downside surprise in December job openings may concern Fed officials and suggest they were premature to remove language in last month’s policy statement emphasising elevated downside risks...

Our China Labour Market Indicator has climbed back above its long-run average recently, signalling an improving employment backdrop. A key driver has been stronger labour demand among exporters, who...

The idea that the Fed could pave the way for much lower policy rates by shrinking its balance sheet is unconvincing. Balance sheet reduction is a blunt tool for tightening financial conditions, and...