Events in China and Europe this month have reduced the chances that China will raise interest rates in May, as we had expected. A first hike may now wait until the fourth quarter.

The surge in China’s copper imports last month has been taken by some as evidence that final demand is booming. But with inventories at unprecedented levels, import demand looks set to tail off again.

China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price...

At first glance, today’s GDP data might suggest China is overheating. However, the acceleration in y/y growth in Q1 was entirely due to weakness a year ago. Growth has continued to slow in q/q terms...