China’s businesses and banks are still confident and do not think the economy is overheating, but consumers are unhappy about prices and wages and reluctant to spend. Mortgage demand is down and few...

Rapid wage increases may play a big role in rebalancing China’s economy in the years ahead. In the short term though, they are no substitute for nominal currency appreciation.

Consumer price inflation has just edged above 3% but with price pressures still low and output growth already slowing, there is no pressing need to tighten policy. Indeed, we no longer expect interest...

Inflation probably rose to 3% in May, but the bigger picture is that the threat of overheating already appears to be dissipating. We now expect inflation for the year as a whole to come in below the...