The global fall-out from a long-anticipated Greek government default alone should be small and manageable, even if it takes the form of a “disorderly” default without the agreement of private...

Oil prices have jumped on the announcement that Iran intends to suspend crude exports to six EU countries, taking Brent back above $120 per barrel. We expect the impact to be short-lived for three...

After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the global economy appears to have made a strong start to 2012. But we suspect that a combination of fiscal austerity, weak consumer confidence and a...

Yesterday’s remarks by Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, have yet again raised the possibility that China may put its financial weight behind international efforts to shore up the euro. We remain sceptical...