Governments in most advanced economies have been tightening fiscal policy since 2010 and will continue to do so this year. Our best guess is that growth in 2012 will consequently be around 0.5...

Oil prices are still below the levels that would represent a serious threat to the global economic recovery. But even now Europe is significantly more vulnerable than the US, despite the higher...

World trade growth slowed in 2011 as economic activity faltered. There was a slight pick-up in the last quarter, which looks set to continue early this year, but we think trade is likely to remain...

The advanced economies have started the year strongly, led by the US, but the recovery is not secure. Growth could still be derailed by fiscal policy tightening, ongoing debt deleveraging, further...