We expect ample supply to result in large falls in global oil prices in the next few years. At the same time, the prices of other key commodities, including industrial metals and agriculturals, are...

Recent trends in corporate credit growth underline the diverging fortunes of advanced economies. In the US, bank lending is expanding at a decent pace, albeit more slowly than it was in 2012, and even...

We expect global growth to pick up gradually during the coming two years as private sector spending accelerates and fiscal austerity eases. Among advanced economies, the US will lead the recovery...

Some commentators have suggested that the global business cycle is now quite advanced and that markets should expect much tighter monetary policy as soon as 2015. We disagree.