An analysis of all the recessions which have occurred in G7 economies since 1960 throws up two main conclusions. First, while most had multiple triggers, monetary policy tightening was usually one of...

As expected, on Friday the EU Council endorsed a transition period and the opening up of a new strand of negotiations on the future relationship. But unless the UK can come up with a solution to the...

The economic impact of the tariffs which have been announced by the Trump administration will be small, even if they are implemented in full, and we suspect that any retaliation will be moderate. But...

Preliminary PMIs, published by Markit today, slipped at the end of the first quarter. But they still support our view that GDP in advanced economies will expand by a decent 2½% or so this year.