While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs...

Growth of almost all monetary aggregates slowed in major advanced economies in February, but we are not worried for three reasons. First, money growth has only slowed a bit. Second, changes in money...

Markit’s global manufacturing PMI fell by the most in two years in March, providing further evidence that global growth has passed its peak. Nonetheless, the PMI remains at a high level and we think...

The recent weakness of some economic data, business surveys and equity markets has raised fears that the global expansion is now fizzling out. We think that China will slow later this year and the US...