Our best guess is that even if all the protectionist threats made to date were carried out, they would subtract a lot less than half a percent from global GDP. A free-for-all, in which all governments...

Today’s historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a year after it appeared North Korea could be heading for a devastating war with...

We expect rising interest rates to cause economic growth to slow sharply next year, especially as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Our best judgement is that there’s a 30% chance of a mild...

Despite the recent sell-off in peripheral European bond markets, we still expect the Fed to raise rates again tomorrow and the ECB to announce at its meeting on Thursday its plans to bring its asset...