Bank of Japan Watch Rate cut more likely than not The Bank of Japan will probably take some additional steps to support funding for corporates at the meeting that concludes next Tuesday. But with output plunging and deflation set to return, we think... 22nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Coronavirus outbreak will trigger BoJ policy rate cut The Bank of Japan has limited room to provide support as the coronavirus outbreak nips the recovery from the sales tax hike in the bud. But we expect it to join the global monetary easing cycle by... 12th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to remain on hold for foreseeable future The Bank of Japan seems to have underestimated the drag on domestic demand from October’s sales tax hike. But the global outlook has improved and the government’s fiscal stimulus announcement has... 16th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to keep policy rates unchanged The economic data have weakened a little further since the Bank’s September meeting. But amid continued concerns about the impact of loose policy on financial stability, we aren’t convinced that the... 24th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to stick to its guns There are mounting signs that the economy will lose steam over the coming months. But the labour market remains very tight and the Bank remains concerned about the impact of loose policy on financial... 12th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to extend forward guidance We expect the Bank of Japan to extend its forward guidance from spring 2020 to summer 2020 or later at next week’s meeting. However, we think that the financial markets are misguided in anticipating... 23rd July 2019 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank won’t ease policy anytime soon A looming slowdown in GDP growth and the prospect of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve has prompted speculation that the BoJ will have to ease policy by the end of this year. However, the Bank... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to remain on the side lines While the tone of the incoming data has been a little more positive since the March meeting, we still expect GDP growth to slow sharply this year. However, many on the Board remain concerned about the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Hurdles for further easing are high While there are mounting signs that a global downturn is underway, concerns about the impact of low policy rates on the health of the banking sector will probably prevent the BoJ from cutting its... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Tightening remains a distant prospect The Bank is getting a bit more concerned about the impact of prolonged monetary easing on financial stability. But with economic activity and inflation set to fall short of its forecasts yet again... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Speculation about policy tightening premature Recent comments by Governor Kuroda and analysis published by the Bank of Japan have again fuelled speculation that policy may be tightened soon. But with the economic expansion sputtering, the... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Sales tax hike is the nail in the coffin to tighter policy The Bank of Japan will probably lower its growth and inflation forecasts further at next week’s policy meeting. And it should reiterate its pledge to keep interest rates at current extremely low... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Board getting more concerned about economic outlook Mounting downside risks to economic activity mean that the Bank of Japan will have little reason in the foreseeable future to deviate from its pledge to keep interest rates extremely low for an... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to tread carefully in policy review Leaks from the Bank of Japan ahead of next week’s Policy Board meeting have prompted speculation that the Board will adjust its policy framework. Any changes would be intended to address the strains... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Financial stability concerns unlikely to lead to tightening Concerns about financial stability seem to have become more widespread on the Policy Board. But inflation remains far below the 2% target and the prospect of a renewed slowdown in domestic demand... 11th June 2018 · 1 min read