Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates and YCC will end this month With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting... 13th March 2024 · 11 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift policy rate to 0.1% in March The Bank of Japan may revise up its medium-term inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting but will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged. We expect the Bank to lift its policy rate to 0.1... 16th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will end negative rates in January The Bank of Japan is increasingly keen to abolish negative interest rates and we think the most likely venue is the Bank’s January meeting. However, we only expect one interest rate hike to 0.1% as... 12th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Forecast revisions won’t prompt tighter policy just yet The Bank of Japan will lift its growth and inflation forecasts at the upcoming meeting, but we think that it will wait for further signs that strong wage growth continues before tightening policy any... 24th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates will end in early-2024 Even though the sustainability of above-target inflation is still far from assured, the Bank of Japan seems to be keen on finally ending negative rates. Accordingly, we now expect a 20bp hike in the... 18th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control won’t be tweaked At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise up its inflation forecasts amid early signs of stronger wage pressures. While that could open the door for a further widening of the tolerance... 21st July 2023 · 9 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control here to stay The Bank of Japan has kept sending dovish signals in recent weeks and our view remains that it won’t make major policy changes this year. And we doubt that the upcoming review will show a compelling... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Ueda will ditch Yield Curve Control at his first meeting Governor Kazuo Ueda faces a difficult choice as inflation has risen faster than the Bank had anticipated but economic activity is much weaker than the Bank had thought. While the risks are tilted... 21st April 2023 · 10 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control could be abandoned this month Yield Curve Control is on counted time and the key question is not if but when it will be abandoned. The Bank could wait until Kazuo Ueda becomes Governor in April. But given that this risks another... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Counting down the clock on Yield Curve Control The widening of the Bank’s tolerance band around 10-year yields has done little to improve market functioning while the government seems to be pressing for a policy shift in response to higher... 11th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy tightening unlikely despite soaring inflation We expect the Bank of Japan to stick to its assessment that the recent surge in inflation won’t be sustained at the upcoming meeting. Accordingly, the Bank won’t respond with tighter policy. 13th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Case for policy tightening won’t become compelling The Bank of Japan will revise up its near-term inflation forecasts in next week’s Outlook report. But by predicting that inflation will fall below target again over the next couple of years, it will... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will stay the course The Bank of Japan is coming under renewed pressure to lift interest rates or abandon Yield Curve Control as inflation and long-term bond yields surge. But the Bank will probably stick to its view that... 15th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank has breathing room to reconsider tolerance band The Bank of Japan will signal prolonged loose policy by forecasting below-target inflation over the next couple of years in next week’s “Outlook” report. Meanwhile, the fall in global bond yields in... 14th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Weak wage growth to preclude tighter policy While Japanese inflation will stay just above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target over the coming months, the Bank will not tighten policy at either the short or long end of the yield curve while wage... 10th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Policy settings under threat but BoJ won’t yield Despite coming under significant pressure in both bond and currency markets in recent weeks, the Bank of Japan will not respond to inflation reaching its 2% target by hiking its short-term policy rate... 21st April 2022 · 8 mins read
