Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to start hiking in early-2023 We now expect the unemployment rate to approach 4% by late-2022. Even though the reopening of the border should ameliorate staff shortages a bit next year, we expect wage growth to accelerate markedly... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices to fall in 2022 We expect the RBNZ to impose new lending restrictions in the months ahead which, in addition to rising interest rates, should result in house prices declining next year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike even earlier The RBNZ’s hawkish rate outlook has prompted us to bring forward our forecast for the first RBNZ rate hike from November to May next year. But in contrast to the RBNZ, we don’t think the pandemic will... 14th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may make QE more flexible We now expect the RBA to refrain from announcing a target for the overall amount of bond purchases at the July meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged at $5bn. A more flexible... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will expand QE by another $100bn next month The Reserve Bank of Australia still sounded dovish when it kept policy settings unchanged today. We think it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn next month. 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dependence on Australian iron ore set to decline In the short-run, China has no choice but to grit its teeth and keep buying Australian iron ore, even as bilateral ties continue to fray. But this dependence will diminish over time thanks to... 26th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals policy tightening next year The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more optimistic at today’s meeting and signalled that it will start to hike rates in the second half of next year, in line with our long-standing forecast. If... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget signals permanently larger public spending Treasurer Josh Frydenberg revealed in today’s Budget that the government will spend nearly all of the windfall accruing from the stronger economic recovery. That will result in a permanently larger... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Budget to extend tax relief While the government is likely to announce further tax relief at next week’s Budget, we suspect it will use nearly half of the recent improvement in the budget balance to reduce borrowing. 5th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to extend QE in July The Reserve Bank of Australia upgraded its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation but reiterated that it is prepared to extend its asset purchases. We stick to our forecast of another $100bn extension... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Implications of a trade war with China New Zealand is playing with fire by criticising the human rights situation in China’s Xinjiang province. While China is highly dependent on New Zealand’s flagship dairy, meat and logs exports, it... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Higher capital weights won’t stymie credit growth New Zealand’s experience suggests that the planned increase in risk-weightings for investor housing loans in Australia won’t act as a big deterrent to bank lending. If investor loan growth started to... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike rates in 2022 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stuck to its dovish stance when it left policy settings unchanged today, but we still expect the Bank to raise rates towards the end of next year. 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dovish RBA to expand QE by another $100bn in June The Reserve Bank of Australia stuck to its dovish stance despite the strength in recent data so we reiterate our view that it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in June. 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Impact of a travel bubble would be small Even if the long-rumoured Australia-New Zealand travel bubble does go ahead, it wouldn’t make a huge difference to either economy. We think the bubble would give a small boost to New Zealand’s GDP and... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Lending standards remain sound Housing finance commitments have surged in recent months pointing to a rise in credit growth before long. But we don’t think lending standards have been eroded so this shouldn’t stop the RBA from... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read