Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian housing market poised for a downturn Australian house prices have lost some momentum in recent months. With the Reserve Bank of Australia set to hike rates to 4.60% in the coming months, we think house prices will fall outright before... 1st April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Why is Australia’s housing market still defying gravity? Even though housing is the least affordable since the early-1990s, a pronounced shortage of housing supply has contributed to continued robust growth in house prices. While higher mortgage rates will... 25th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy crisis won’t hasten Australia’s shift to renewables The Iran conflict has exposed Australia’s continued reliance on fossil fuels, reigniting debate over a green energy pivot. While the government has legislated ambitious climate targets, it has shown... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates again in May Although the RBA’s decision to raise rates at its meeting today was made by the narrowest of margins, the split vote primarily reflected differences regarding the timing of the move rather than the... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy shortages rippling through Australian supply chains With supplies of crude oil from the Gulf dwindling, local prices of petroleum products imported from the Asia-Pacific region have already risen more sharply than movements in crude oil prices would... 16th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Last hurrah for Australian iron ore mining Resources exports rose strongly last year, driven by a jump in iron ore exports. However, the bigger picture is that global steel output is past its peak and a sustained pick-up in mining investment... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year. 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's public sector adding to inflationary pressures Australia’s public sector can’t be blamed for the renewed acceleration in inflation across the second half of last year. But the inexorable surge in public spending in recent years is a key reason why... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing market loses some steam Australian house prices pared their gains in February, as housing demand softened a touch. Although the slowdown was driven largely by Sydney and Melbourne, we suspect it will become more broad-based... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
