Asset Allocation Outlook Outlook: Asset allocation in a Brave New World Our base case is that the turmoil across financial markets in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement will continue to stabilise. As such, we assume that most asset prices and the... 17th April 2025 · 21 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an inflating AI bubble We think US equities will fare better in 2025 than the other major asset classes we monitor, as the AI bubble inflates further. But we expect equities elsewhere generally to lag those in the US and... 17th December 2024 · 29 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation as the Fed cuts and the US votes We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well... 25th September 2024 · 28 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We think the future remains bright for US equities We continue to expect equities to outperform most other assets through the end of next year, as the hype around AI builds and lower inflation facilitates more monetary easing in some places than... 1st July 2024 · 28 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an equity bubble We expect equities to outperform most other assets as an AI-fuelled bubble continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we... 4th April 2024 · 29 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The good times for risky assets may continue to roll “Safe” and “risky” assets are both on track for a strong final quarter of the year, and we think next year will deliver more of the same. After all, we think that the main tailwind this quarter –... 11th December 2023 · 21 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The trouble before the bubble Both “safe” and “risky” assets have struggled during Q3 so far, as “risk-free” yields have risen. We expect the fortunes of safe assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely informed by our... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The implications of AI hype for asset returns Q2 looks set to go down as a decisive victory for “risky” assets over “safe” ones, thanks in large part to euphoria in the stock market over Artificial Intelligence (AI). But we suspect that the story... 27th June 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Outlook We doubt that risky assets will remain so resilient Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which... 31st March 2023 · 21 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bonds may outperform equities amid a global recession After moving in broadly the same direction for much of 2022, we think that the returns from “safe” assets will generally diverge from those from “risky” assets between now and around the middle of... 1st November 2022 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We think the worst is yet to come for most risky assets Although we think that we have now passed this cycle’s peak in long-dated US Treasury yields, we still suspect that investors are underestimating just how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest... 5th August 2022 · 24 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation after inflation has peaked Although we suspect that inflation in the US has now peaked, we don’t think that this will prevent either long-dated Treasury yields from rising again or the stock market there from coming under... 10th May 2022 · 24 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Higher bond yields more headwind than hurricane Although we expect a further rise in government bond yields to undermine the returns from most “safe” assets, we don’t expect it to be big enough to bring the prices of most “risky” financial assets... 31st January 2022 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Risky assets face a more challenging backdrop While the combination of a strong economic recovery and accommodative monetary policy has fuelled healthy returns for many investors over the past 18 months or so, we think that the macroeconomic... 29th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Tempering our optimism We no longer expect equities and corporate bonds to outperform “safe” government bonds by anything like as much as we did a couple of quarters ago, and we continue to forecast that some other “risky”... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bond rout and equity rotation likely to resume We are forecasting a very strong – but also somewhat uneven – recovery in the global economy over the next couple of years as the pandemic is gradually contained, with three key implications for asset... 16th April 2021 · 25 mins read
