Asset Allocation Outlook The implications of AI hype for asset returns Q2 looks set to go down as a decisive victory for “risky” assets over “safe” ones, thanks in large part to euphoria in the stock market over Artificial Intelligence (AI). But we suspect that the story... 27th June 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Outlook We doubt that risky assets will remain so resilient Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which... 31st March 2023 · 21 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bonds may outperform equities amid a global recession After moving in broadly the same direction for much of 2022, we think that the returns from “safe” assets will generally diverge from those from “risky” assets between now and around the middle of... 1st November 2022 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We think the worst is yet to come for most risky assets Although we think that we have now passed this cycle’s peak in long-dated US Treasury yields, we still suspect that investors are underestimating just how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest... 5th August 2022 · 24 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation after inflation has peaked Although we suspect that inflation in the US has now peaked, we don’t think that this will prevent either long-dated Treasury yields from rising again or the stock market there from coming under... 10th May 2022 · 24 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Higher bond yields more headwind than hurricane Although we expect a further rise in government bond yields to undermine the returns from most “safe” assets, we don’t expect it to be big enough to bring the prices of most “risky” financial assets... 31st January 2022 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Risky assets face a more challenging backdrop While the combination of a strong economic recovery and accommodative monetary policy has fuelled healthy returns for many investors over the past 18 months or so, we think that the macroeconomic... 29th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Tempering our optimism We no longer expect equities and corporate bonds to outperform “safe” government bonds by anything like as much as we did a couple of quarters ago, and we continue to forecast that some other “risky”... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bond rout and equity rotation likely to resume We are forecasting a very strong – but also somewhat uneven – recovery in the global economy over the next couple of years as the pandemic is gradually contained, with three key implications for asset... 16th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook 2020s unlikely to be a rerun of the 1930s and 2000s We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s... 16th February 2021 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Coronavirus recovery rally may be far from over Although the incoming economic data are likely to remain poor until around mid-2021, we forecast that “risky” assets will continue to outperform “safe” ones comfortably over the next couple of years... 7th January 2021 · 23 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The winding road to recovery The market movements of recent weeks are a timely reminder of the importance of the main near-term risks – coronavirus cases rising in major economies as winter approaches, and uncertainty about the... 2nd October 2020 · 23 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in the next stage of the COVID crisis So long as the revival in the global economy continues, even if only gradually, we forecast that “risky” assets will resume their comfortable outperformance of “safe” ones. We do not buy the argument... 2nd July 2020 · 23 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Portfolio allocation in a pandemic Although fiscal and monetary support has helped a bit, we doubt that “risky” assets will sustainably outperform “safe” ones again until the global spread of the coronavirus slows, which would raise... 3rd April 2020 · 23 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook 2020-21 likely to be much less rewarding than 2019 We think that returns from “risky” assets – equities, corporate bonds, REITs and industrial commodities – will generally beat those from “safe” ones – government bonds and precious metals – again over... 13th December 2019 · 22 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Split Fed puts both bonds and equities on thin ice This is the first publication on our new Asset Allocation Service. The service considers the asset allocation implications of our comprehensive macroeconomic and financial market research, which is... 19th September 2019 · 25 mins read
