US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Jul./Aug.) The fall in prices reported by the FHFA in July supports our view of a sustained decline over the next 12 months. With mortgage rates rising to above 6% in September, we think it is only a matter of... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) We doubt the smaller 0.4% m/m fall in existing home sales in August marks a floor for activity. Indeed, it is line with the levelling off in mortgage demand seen in July as the rise in mortgage rates... 21st September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts surprised on the upside in August, rising for the first time in six months. But we still expect them to fall further this year as stretched affordability continues to weigh on new home... 20th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Phoenix knocked off top spot by southern markets We expect a sharp slowdown in apartment rental growth across the board, as job growth slows, affordability constraints bite and an influx of supply pushes up vacancy. But some markets will perform... 16th September 2022 · 15 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Price correction to prove relatively small this time around Higher interest rates mean that real estate looks significantly overpriced in all sectors. The latest activity and performance data suggest that a correction is underway, but as we now think the 10... 9th September 2022 · 25 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth expectations turn negative Stretched affordability continued to weigh on housing market activity in July and August, leaving mortgage applications for home purchase down by 40% from their high in January. A renewed rise in... 9th September 2022 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Home purchase applications fell for a fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down by 40% from their high in January. With mortgage rates once again rising and against a backdrop of stretched... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment completions set for multi-decade high The jump in multifamily housing starts in the first half of 2022 implies a surge in completions over the next couple of years to a multi-decade high. But while rental demand is now moderating, the... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure rate headed for a small bump With the vast majority of mortgage borrowers protected by fixed rates, it is not a surprise that the early delinquency rate has risen only marginally since the start of the year. And our forecasts for... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) New home sales dropped sharply again in July on the back of rising mortgage rates. Stretched affordability will continue to weigh on housing market activity over the second half of the year. We now... 23rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) Higher mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in July, which are now down by 26% from their peak in January. We expect a further fall of close to 5% by end-2022 to 4.6m annualised... 19th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family housing starts fell for the fifth consecutive month in July, leaving them down by 25% from their high at the end of 2021. Leading indicators point to a much larger decline in the coming... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Stretched affordability to hit sales and prices Despite a reduction in our mortgage rate forecast, affordability is still set to be as stretched as it was during the mid-2000s housing boom. Alongside record-low homebuyer sentiment and a slowing... 12th August 2022 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Update Higher rates to prevent rise in homeownership The odds are stacking up against first-time buyers (FTBs), an important demographic for homeownership. A very limited number of starter homes on the market, higher interest rates, tight credit... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Ranking the US’s largest warehousing markets We think that major distribution hubs, where rents are high and availability is low, will underperform their neighbouring markets over the next few years. Tenants will increasingly look past the major... 4th August 2022 · 21 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Both refinancing and home purchase activity continued to trend lower in July, with the latter down by around 30% since the start of the year. Against a backdrop of stretched affordability and record... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
