We doubt the smaller 0.4% m/m fall in existing home sales in August marks a floor for activity. Indeed, it is line with the levelling off in mortgage demand seen in July as the rise in mortgage rates took a brief pause. But with mortgage rates on the rise again, hitting 6.25% in mid-September, and mortgage demand seeing further declines we expect sales will fall to around 4.6m annualised by end-2022.
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