Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The huge fall in consumer confidence in March suggests that consumption may have contracted as the war in Ukraine and higher energy prices reduced households’ willingness and ability to spend. In turn... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The small rise in retail sales in January, after a steep fall in December, suggests that Omicron remained a drag on consumption. Although spending will have rebounded in February, higher energy prices... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) February’s increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator showed that confidence was high before the recent news about the conflict in Ukraine. It also showed that supply shortages remained severe... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The increase in Swedish CPIF excluding energy was significantly higher than expected and pushed the core rate above the Riksbank’s 2.0% target for the first time in nearly three years. While we expect... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jan.) Inflation was stronger than expected in Switzerland in January, although the upward surprise was not in the same league as that seen in the euro-zone and Swiss inflation is still consistent with the... 11th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) Given the backdrop of a tightening labour market, the fall in CPI-ATE is likely to be a one-off. We think that once the latest wave dissipates, the core inflation rate will pick up again and may rise... 10th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Shift in ECB stance poses risks to the bond market Both we and the market are now discounting 100bp of ECB rate hikes by the end of 2023. And given the sequencing set out by Christine Lagarde, it seems likely that net asset purchases will end in Q3... 8th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone retail sales volumes in December means that sales growth slowed significantly in Q4 as a whole. While we expect consumer spending to recover over the coming months when... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal rebound to continue after election The Socialist Party’s victory in yesterday’s election means there will be no substantial change in economic policy, but the government should be more stable. In any case, Portugal’s economy is set to... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator weakened in January as the Omicron wave took a toll on economic activity, particularly in the services sector. The survey also showed that supply shortages remained... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s broadly unchanged reading for consumer confidence suggests that household spending might be holding up fairly well, despite a surge in Covid cases. We expect consumption to recover quickly... 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.) The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in December will embolden the hawks at the Riksbank. While we expect energy effects will drop out this year, continued supply-chain problems and rising inflation... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.3% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production followed a big downward revision to October’s figures and was largely due to huge volatility in Ireland. The big picture is that... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
