US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2025) The slight dip in the ISM manufacturing index in March suggests that, rather than triggering a reshoring factory renaissance, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff threats are... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump shifts tariffs up a gear The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on most motor vehicle and some parts imports is an upside risk to our inflation forecasts. There have been some hints from the administration that the levies... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Tariffs to push Canada into recession We have raised our assumption for the average US tariff rate that Canadian exporters will face, to a level that will likely push the economy into recession. The downturn should be only moderate if, as... 27th March 2025 · 15 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 25) We think markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts this year, meaning the recent dip in mortgage rates is just a temporary respite. We expect rates to rebound to 7% and hover around that level... 25th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Feb. 2025) After a large partly weather-driven fall in January, last month’s small rebound in new home sales was a little underwhelming but still illustrates that the market for new homes is in decent shape. 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed operating in the dark The Fed is struggling to provide forward guidance without clear policy direction from the new administration. Even though rate-setters expect core PCE inflation to end the year at close to 3%, the... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Feb. 2025) The sharp rebound in housing starts in February and healthy permit issuance shows that the housing market is still holding up well. Nonetheless, with tariff concerns continuing to weigh on... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariffs cause headache for the Bank of Canada Although the Bank of Canada acknowledged the downside risks to the economy from US tariffs this week, its accompanying communications suggest that it is cautious about loosening policy much further. 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The tariffs will continue until sentiment improves Comments from President Donald Trump and his cabinet members in the past week suggest that neither an economic downturn nor a severe stock market decline will deter the administration from pursuing... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2025) The plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in March, paired with the surge in inflation expectations, indicates that consumers’ concerns about the impact of the Trump... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. As a result, we now forecast weaker economic growth, with GDP expanding by just 1.0%... 11th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump tariff push descends into farce Markets reacted badly this week when President Donald Trump once again flip-flopped on imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. That's two U-turns in a month. It remains to be seen whether... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Feb. 2025) The sharp fall in home purchase mortgage applications in February confirms that the rebound in mortgage rates late last year is suppressing home purchase demand. Recent declines in Treasury yields... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view The formation of a committee to assess the scope of possible tariff reductions is another sign that PM Modi is seeking to make concessions to President Trump in order to avoid being hit hard by... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q4 2024) GDP figures for Q4 2024 show that India’s economy remained fairly soft by its own standards at the end of last year. But with policy now decisively turning more supportive, economic growth should pick... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
