US Housing Market Update The implications of lumber tariffs While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2025) February’s 0.4% m/m rise in house prices is still a bit stronger than the timely leading indicators - like rising months’ supply and longer average time on market - would suggest. However, along with... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney and Poilievre unveil dubious fiscal plans Both major parties have unveiled their platforms ahead of next week's federal election. While we suspect both sets of projections understate the size of future budget deficits, the Liberals would... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reality bites for Trump on tariffs and the Fed The negative reaction in financial markets undoubtedly played a key role in making President Trump reconsider his eye-wateringly high tariffs on China and his ill-advised plans to fire Fed Chair... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Mar. 2025) Lower mortgage rates drove a sharp rise in new home sales in March, showing that the market still has solid momentum despite inventory creeping up in the resale segment. However, with mortgage rates... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank holds off on further loosening awaiting trade clarity While the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.75% this week - despite markets pricing in roughly 50% odds of a 25bp cut - it balanced this out by striking a mostly dovish tone in its communications... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The American consumer rises again The positive retail sales data for March released this week means we now believe that real consumption grew by 1.0% annualised in the first quarter, pushing our Q1 GDP forecast back into positive... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Mar. 2025) The sharp fall in housing starts in March is less concerning than it seems at first glance, partly reflecting a normalisation in homebuilding after February’s weather-driven surge, rather than a... 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Scaled-back tariffs not an existential threat Our working assumption is that the 90-day pause on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs will be made permanent, with tariffs remaining at 10% for most countries apart from China. Providing... 16th April 2025 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 25) The housing market took another leg down in March, with the larger decline in single-family home prices suggesting that owner-occupiers rather than investors are behind the most recent weakness... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Will domestic spending offset weak external demand? It’s been two months since Canadians began boycotting US goods and services in the wake of the aggression from President Trump over tariffs and his apparent desire to make Canada the 51st state. The... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr. 2025) The further fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April, along with the rise in both one- and five-year inflation expectations, suggests that the tariff-related fears which... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) While Canada escaped “liberation day” relatively unscathed, the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will still weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. With immigration also... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Republicans need to get with the recycling program President Donald Trump’s big “Liberation Day” announcement went down badly in the markets, as fears mounted that the bigger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs would trigger a recession. The surge in... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Mar. 2025) The fall in the ISM services index in March shows that the weakness isn’t isolated to the manufacturing sector. Our weighted average ISM index is consistent with the economy contracting, although it... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
