Global Economics

Jonathan Petersen joined Capital Economics in October 2020 and is a Markets Economist in the Global Markets team. He joined from Vanguard’s economic research team, where he specialized in currencies and global trade. Before that, he was a strategy consultant in Deloitte Consulting’s mergers and acquisitions practice. He holds an undergraduate degree in Economics and Corporate Strategy from Boston College and a masters degree in Economics from the University of Edinburgh.

Articles published by Jonathan Petersen

• Sustained tightening by the Fed to drive Treasury yields higher
• We expect yields to support further USD strength before long
• Slow start to 2022 for FX markets ahead of US inflation
• Taking stock of the US dollar’s prospects in 2022
• Diverging monetary policies may extend the USD rally
• FX markets likely to remain volatile into year-end
• We anticipate that the rand will remain weak
• Continued dollar rally looks increasingly likely
• We don’t expect the renminbi’s resilience to last
• We think that the yen remains vulnerable to rising US rates
• Investors’ expectations and the outlook for DM monetary policy
• US dollar falls back as Treasury yields edge down
• We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar
• “High-beta” G10 currencies unlikely to benefit from rising yields
• Dollar rally loses steam following weak payrolls data
• We expect the Aussie dollar to remain under pressure
• Dollar edges higher ahead of the September FOMC meeting
• Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie
• What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets
• We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over
• Dollar remains on the back foot after August payrolls
• We expect the Swedish krona to outperform the UK pound
• We doubt the rebound in EM currencies will last
• Our approach to currency valuation
• Dollar rally takes a breather as US Treasury yields stall
• We expect rising UST yields to extend the dollar’s rally
• We expect commodity currencies to remain under pressure
• Dollar resumes its rally on the back of strong US data
• We think US real yields are unlikely to stay this low
• The FOMC announcement may extend the dollar rally
• We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure
• Investor positioning may be one factor behind the fall in yields
• Rising US Treasury yields likely to drive DM bond yields higher
• Growth concerns buoy the dollar despite falling US yields
• Making sense of the mixed signals behind US dollar strength
• US ISM and payrolls could add fuel to the dollar rally
• We think that the yen will weaken further before long
• Taking stock of the FX market reaction to the FOMC
• All eyes on Wednesday’s FOMC announcement
• Why we expect the US dollar to reverse course
• We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength
• Payrolls take centre stage again
• We think the euro’s recent strength will prove to be transitory
• We expect recent strength in the South African rand to reverse
• We think the US dollar will strengthen again before long
• Three reasons we think the euro will weaken further this year
• We expect bond yield divergence to favour the USD
• We expect bond yield divergence to favour the USD
• Growing evidence of a sustained increase in US inflation
• What to make of higher FX-hedged Treasury yields
• We expect oil to be the key driver for the loonie
• We expect oil to be the key driver for the loonie
• We expect EM currency appreciation to moderate
• We expect EM currency appreciation to moderate
• Three risks to our forecast for a weaker dollar
• We think US dollar upside remains limited by loose Fed policy
• Three risks to our forecast for a weaker dollar
• We think the dollar will fall further as risky assets gain
• We think the dollar will fall further as risky assets gain
• We expect the euro to rise further against the dollar
• We expect the euro to rise further against the dollar
• Dollar may weaken further regardless of election result
• We expect Canadian dollar appreciation to persist
• We expect Canadian dollar appreciation to persist
• We expect Canadian dollar appreciation to persist