Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen wouldn’t stop inflation from falling The yen briefly breached 140 against the dollar this week but we still expect it to strengthen to 125 by year-end. Even if we're wrong and the exchange rate weakens further, it wouldn't prevent... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr. 23) April’s activity data were a mixed bag. The fall in industrial production and sharp drop in retail sales volumes pose downside risks to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. By contrast, capital goods shipments... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 2023) The unemployment rate reversed the sharp rise in March last month and the job-to-applicant ratio stabilised, but a recession in H2 should still see the unemployment rate peak at 3% by year-end. 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth too low to sustain higher inflation There’s little reason to expect above-target inflation to be sustained in Japan. Wage growth remains far below the levels seen in other developed economies and remains far too low to generate second... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (May. 2023) Tokyo inflation fell to 3.2% in May largely due to a sharp fall in energy inflation, but inflation excluding fresh food and energy ticked up due to faster gains in “core” goods prices. We still expect... 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s flash PMI readings were the strongest they’d been in a while and point to gains in both industrial production and services spending, supporting our assessment that the economy continued to grow... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Mar. 2023) We already know that business investment rose despite a plunge in capital goods shipments last quarter. As such, we wouldn’t read too much into the fall in machinery orders in March. The bigger... 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession and higher prices to sink spending in H2 Stubborn price pressures and a recession in the second half mean real disposable incomes are set to continue shrinking through year-end. With the savings rate now barely higher than it was pre... 19th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) Underlying inflation pushed past 4.0% for the first time in 40 years partly due to a spike in food inflation. Meanwhile, services inflation set a fresh 30-year high, largely reflecting higher goods... 19th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Apr. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in April as export values rose faster than import values, largely reflecting the faster fall in import prices. Export climate readings suggest export volumes will continue... 18th May 2023 · 2 mins read
