Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts, but more loosening unlikely The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut rates today, but given our view that the rupee will come under pressure again this year, we think this will probably mark the last cut in 2019. 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2019) After a relatively calm first half of 2019, EM capital outflows probably picked up significantly in August as US-China trade tensions escalated. And outflows are likely to remain larger over the... 21st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in Q2, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We are forecasting a renewed slowdown in the second half of this year, driven by weaker consumer spending... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: MAS to wait until October to ease An official from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today confirmed that it is not considering an unscheduled policy adjustment, but given the poor outlook for the economy loosening in October... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP cuts, one more likely this year Today’s 25bp cut from the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) came as no surprise, and with inflation set to fall back further and growth only likely to stage a moderate recovery over the coming... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) The continued weakness of growth means that the central bank will likely opt for a more aggressive 50bp policy rate cut this afternoon. And while growth should recover from here, don’t expect a strong... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Trade dispute makes rate cut in Korea more likely Japan’s decision to remove Korea from its list of trusted trading partners looks set to cause significant short-term disruption to Korea’s economy, and is likely to prompt the Bank of Korea (BoK) to... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) PMI readings for Emerging Asia were slightly more positive at the start of Q3, but the big picture is that they remain low by past standards and there are few signs of a meaningful turnaround yet. 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jul.) Korea’s trade data suggest that a meaningful recovery in the external environment remained elusive at the start to the second half of the year, with weakness in the technology sector and slowing... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS to loosen soon, Malaysia restarts rail project The recent deterioration in the economic data from Singapore adds weight to our view that monetary policy will be loosened before the central bank’s next scheduled meeting in mid-October. Meanwhile... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2) The strength of growth in Q2 more than offset the contraction in Q1, but with the economy still likely to face large external headwinds in the second half of this year, a sustained upturn is unlikely. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia: rebound in inflation nothing to worry about The jump in the headline rate of inflation in Malaysia last month to 1.5% y/y from 0.2% in May, is unlikely to trouble the central bank (BNM). The rise was due to the effects of the elimination of the... 24th July 2019 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea minimum wage U-turn, who will cut rates next? Having hiked the minimum wage aggressively in 2018 and 2019, the Korean government earlier this week announced a very small increase in the minimum wage for next year. The policy shift comes in... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Positive newsflow on EM trade unlikely to last The US-China trade war truce, coming alongside Mercosur countries and Vietnam securing trade deals with the EU, has eased some of the worst fears about protectionism. But it’s far from certain that... 18th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2019) Net capital outflows from emerging markets look to have persisted last month, suggesting that the US-China trade war continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The truce announced at the late-June G20... 17th July 2019 · 4 mins read
