Not every prediction we made in 2024 went our way, but those that did covered the full spectrum of macro and markets. Those ​​​​​forecasts captured a global economy in which inflationary forces receded further, in which the US continued its remarkable run of outperformance, even as other major economies struggled, and in which US equities again led the pack. Below are just 10 of our notable calls from the past year: 

1. As we had long predicted, the S&P 500 rose to a record high of 6,000 in the final days of 2024. Our forecast that AI hype would drive the US benchmark to new records this year was considered wildly optimistic when first published in mid-2023. Since then, the consensus has been scrambling to catch up and our S&P call has helped us garner a string of industry awards for global equities forecasting accuracy. See our latest market forecasts.
2. We were correct to argue that signs of a resurgence of inflation in the US in the first quarter were just noise and stuck to our view that the Fed would cut several times in 2024. At the time, markets were essentially pricing no cuts at all over 2024 and the Fed’s own projections saw just one 25bp move. Fed officials are getting antsy again and you can read what this will mean for policy in 2025 in our latest Fed analysis.
3. That US call tied in with our broader – and ultimately correct – view that headline advanced economy inflation would return to, or near to, the targets of their central banks in 2024, despite widespread market concerns about a difficult “last mile” for price pressures. Here's our latest Global Inflation Watch.
4. Even as other forecasters raised their predictions for oil prices in the face of broadening Middle East conflict, we correctly predicted that supply-demand forces would play a greater role than geopolitics in driving prices, keeping them nearer $70 per barrel at year-end. Here's what's next for oil.
5. In 2024, we extended our long track record of correctly predicting decisions by G10 central banks, including our non-consensus forecast that that the BOJ would end negative rates in March, that the SNB would become the first of this group of monetary authorities to ease policy at its meeting that month, and that the Bank of Canada would opt for a bumper 50bp cut in October. Our Central Bank Hub has our latest policy rate forecasts.
6. We correctly predicted going into 2024 that signs of China's economic recovery would soon fizzle out. More generally, there was greater market alignment this year with our long-standing view that China’s trend growth rate will slow to just 2% as awareness continued to grow around the economy’s many structural problems. Here's the latest read of our China Activity Proxy.
7. Among other emerging markets, we were correct to argue at the start of 2024 that Asian central banks would cut rates sooner and further than most expected. But we also explained why hot inflation would mean the scale of monetary easing would fall short of expectations across most of Central Europe and Latin America. Read about EM monetary policy under Trump.
8. Our proprietary EM Financial Risk Indicators flagged growing sovereign debt vulnerabilities in parts of Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe. These concerns have come to the fore towards the end of the year in several major EMs, including Brazil, Colombia and Romania, driving a rise in bond yields. Explore our EM Financial Risk Indicators.
9. Our successful FX calls included our view that optimism about prospects for the Mexican peso – which had undergone a staggering rally – was overdone. The currency looked over-valued and primed for an adjustment below 20/$. From June, the currency moved in line with our view. Find out what awaits Mexico in Trump's second term.
10. We were right to advise real estate investors that commercial property markets in the US and Europe would continue to struggle in the first half of 2024 before, in contrast to the consensus view, staging only a weak recovery in the second half. Here's the latest on a remarkably slow CRE recovery.