US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jan.) January was an especially strong month for payrolls data, and this translated into positive employment growth across all 30 of the biggest metros. However, this was not the case for office-based jobs... 17th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Feb.) Net commercial real estate lending ticked up in February following a slowdown the month prior. That said, monthly lending activity across all sectors remained below the average for 2022. With January... 13th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) The expected slowdown in net lending to real estate began to show in January. This was seen across all sectors and the latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested this will continue, as banks cited a... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Despite the solid payrolls data for December, there was a clear softening in employment growth in several large metros. But those that have performed the best since the pandemic continue to outperform... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) The latest RICS Survey conveyed a further decline in confidence following a turning point in the previous quarter. Comments from surveyors point to high interest rates as the main concern, and we... 26th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4) The 4.45% hit to all-property capital values in Q4 was more substantial than our end-2022 forecasts implied, although recent news of bigger valuation markdowns in December made this less of a surprise... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Dec.) On the surface, net lending to real estate in December looks to have reached its highest since October 2008. However, this apparent spike in lending was almost entirely due to the addition of a... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Nov.) CRE lending grew solidly again in November, at a rate close to the six-month average, with other commercial sectors picking up the slack from slower growth in multifamily lending. Although lending... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Oct.) Total employment grew across the 30 metros, but at a slower pace as labour market conditions continued to ease. With our proprietary indicators pointing to a 90% probability of an imminent recession... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct.) CRE lending saw a surprise uptick in growth in October following a rebound in the multifamily sector, although net lending remains below the average for this year. Despite the bounce-back this month... 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2022) Consensus forecasts for 2023 have been downgraded pretty sharply since the Spring, but we don’t think they have gone far enough. While the consensus is predicting total returns of nearly 4% next year... 10th November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) Employment continues to trend higher across the 30 metros, but nearly half remain short of pre-pandemic peaks, including all six major metros. Indeed, with job growth slowing, we don't expect... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The RICS Q3 survey indicated confidence has continued to fall from last quarter, as occupier sentiment turned negative for the first time in 2022. With a US recession looking likely early next year... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3) As expected, NCREIF all-property total returns dropped back significantly in Q3, to just 0.6% q/q, as investor demand pared back in response to higher alternative asset yields and the poor outlook... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Sep.) CRE lending growth slowed significantly in September, with both multifamily and other commercial sectors seeing the smallest rise in outstanding debt for at least six months. We expect the rate of... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) The greater number of metros seeing a decline in total jobs in August comes as little surprise given the slowdown in the national data this month. But for the major six metros and poorer performing... 28th September 2022 · 2 mins read
