UK Economics Risks to consumer spending forecast tilted to the downside April's money and credit data provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown in April wasn't too severe. But it may take time for the cost of living squeeze to fully filter through into... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics What the Chancellor gives, the BoE will have to take away The new fiscal stimulus announced by the Chancellor this week puts more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates into restrictive territory. As result of this and other recent... 27th May 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Inflation to rise further and linger longer than in the US and EZ Not only did the surge in CPI inflation to 9.0% in April leave inflation in the UK above the rates in both the US and the euro-zone, but inflation in the UK will probably rise further and stay higher... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Will the MPC still raise interest rates if there’s a recession? It looks as though the economy is halfway towards a recession. Although the Monetary Policy Committee has never raised interest rates during a recession before (the last time it happened was in 1975)... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weakening economy won’t do the MPC’s job The Bank of England’s prediction that the economy is on the brink of recession grabbed the headlines this week, but we suspect its GDP forecast will prove too downbeat. That’s not to say the risk of... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Our new forecasts, pound risks adding to price pressures Even though we think the pound will continue to weaken against the US dollar, from $1.26 now to around $1.22 by the end of the year, that’s unlikely to significantly boost CPI inflation as we think it... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weak economy won’t prevent further bond market sell-off The downbeat news on the UK economy this week did not stop the 10-year gilt yield rising further to its highest level since November 2015. And with CPI inflation set to climb further, perhaps to a... 22nd April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly No respite for Sunak as Stagflation bites For an embattled Chancellor, the news from the economy is likely to get worse before it gets better. But despite the worrying signs for economic activity over the coming months, with CPI inflation now... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Upside risks to inflation continue to build We are growing more concerned about the upside risk to our inflation forecast in the coming months. That’s partly because pipeline price pressures have already risen by a bit more than we had... 8th April 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Real income hit and recession risk There are two reasons why we are not expecting the fall in real incomes triggered by the rise in a host of prices and taxes from today to lead to a recession. First, further rises in employment and... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Shift towards higher taxes and spending is here to stay Far from reducing the tax burden, the Chancellor is set to preside over the biggest tax share of GDP since 1949 under Clement Attlee's post-war Labour government. So if Rishi Sunak wants to be... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Should the BoE fear the “stag” more than the “flation”? The Bank of England appears to be putting more weight on the “stag” part of the stagflationary consequences of the war in Ukraine than the “flation” part. But our forecast that the labour market will... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor unlikely to help households as much as some hope Those expecting the Chancellor to unveil a big fiscal support package to shelter households from even higher energy costs in his Spring statement on 23 rd March may be sorely disappointed. Our best... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics One week on, how has the war in Ukraine moved the dial? The further escalation of the war in Ukraine this week, which resulted in tighter economic sanctions on Russia and renewed surges in commodity prices, has increased the upside risks to inflation and... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics How will Russia/Ukraine influence the BoE’s rate hike plans? As it stands at the moment, we don’t think that the Russia/Ukraine conflict will delay or derail the Bank of England’s plans to raise interest rates further. That’s because the Bank will probably be a... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Russia/Ukraine and the risks to inflation If a Russia/Ukraine conflict were to materialise, the likely upward pressure on energy prices would keep UK inflation higher for longer via higher fuel prices in the near term and rising utility bills... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read