UK Economics Weekly Big fiscal boost when economy weak, smaller drag when it’s stronger The measures announced in this week’s Budget support the economy when it is most in need and are a smaller drag once the economy is more able to deal with it. As a result, there is an upside to our... 5th March 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Markets reading the roadmap to higher interest rates wrong The surge in 10-year gilt yields to a one-year high of more than 0.80% this week has been driven by the markets’ expectations that the economic recovery will prompt the Bank of England to raise... 26th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Lockdown exit plan to shed light on speed of the recovery The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggested that January’s lockdown hit the economy harder than November’s lockdown. But at least it doesn’t look like things deteriorated further in February... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Lost summer holiday season won’t delay GDP rebound The possibility that international travel restrictions could remain in place this summer implies that the rapid vaccine rollout in the UK won’t be enough to ensure a swift return to normality for the... 12th February 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two upsides to our upbeat forecasts There are still plenty of downside risks to our upbeat economic forecasts, but the events of this week highlighted two upside risks. First, the rapid rollout of vaccines means COVID-19 restrictions... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market having a remarkably good crisis The labour market has been remarkably strong since the onset of the pandemic. And even if the unemployment rate does rise to 6.5% by the end of this year, as we expect, the government would probably... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two risks to our recovery hopes Rumours of tax rises in the Budget in March and speculation that the population has shrunk sharply both threaten our view that the economy will eventually enjoy a quick and complete recovery from the... 22nd January 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly COVID-19 economic hole far smaller November’s GDP figures which suggested that the economy ended 2020 in a far better position than we had thought and the promising start to the vaccine roll out have given us some cause for optimism... 15th January 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly When will vaccines unlock the economy? The length of the third lockdown in England will largely be determined by how long it takes to vaccinate the most vulnerable people. As a result, the pace of vaccinations over the next few weeks will... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers will make or break 2021 2021 is bound to be a better year for the economy than 2020. How much better depends on what happens with Brexit by 11pm GMT on 31 st December 2020 and whether or not the Chancellor tightens fiscal... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers will make or break 2021 2021 is bound to be a better year for the economy than 2020. How much better depends on what happens with Brexit by 11pm GMT on 31 st December 2020 and whether or not the Chancellor tightens fiscal... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risk of a "cooperative" no deal Brexit rises The next Brexit decision “deadline” on Sunday 13 th December, may or may not be the turning point that results in the UK and EU hurtling either towards a deal or a no deal. But with the Brexit... 11th December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: will they won't they? The Brexit negotiations may finally come to a head this week before the next EU summit on Thursday 10 th December. We still think that a deal is more likely than not and with the pound already at our... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read