UK Economics Weekly Market pricing for many rate hikes conflicts with jobs outlook While there are plausible scenarios in which the Bank of England hikes interest rates in response to the leap in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the jumps in market rate... 20th March 2026 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict already hurting the UK economy The rises in petrol prices and mortgage rates show that the new stagflationary pressures we previously warned about due to the conflict in the Middle East have arrived. We think the Bank of England... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict to raise UK inflation more than it cuts growth We will wait for more clarity on events in the Middle East before altering our inflation, GDP and Bank Rate forecasts. But in a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain close to current levels... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour feeling Green, AI optimism, near-term jobs risks The government’s loss in this week’s by-election may raise the chances of looser fiscal policy than otherwise, higher gilt yields than otherwise and a lower pound than otherwise. Meanwhile, the risks... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Youth unemployment cyclical not structural...for now Labour market data published this week has raised valid concerns about a structural rise in youth unemployment. But while it is too early to rule that out, the rise so far is not that much more than... 20th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What has the government ever done for us? The government has been supporting both economic and employment growth over the last year, while private sector activity has been weak and private sector employment has fallen. But this isn't the... 13th February 2026 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger pound helpful for BoE, but rising oil price is a risk While the pound's recent appreciation against the US dollar doesn't materially change the outlook for UK CPI inflation, the Bank of England will welcome a bit more disinflationary pressure. But one... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The lasting legacy of Trump’s temporary tariff threat Although it took just four days for President Trump's Greenland tariff threat to be withdrawn, the longer lasting impacts on the UK economy could be an accelerated plan to boost defence spending and a... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly February may be too soon, but rate cuts to keep on coming Unless next week’s labour market and inflation data are unanimously weak, February may be too soon for another interest rate cut given the Bank of England’s hawkish tilt at its December meeting. But... 16th January 2026 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Public sector pay not an obstacle to further BoE rate cuts We expect the striking gap between public and private sector pay growth in October to narrow in the coming months. But even if political pressure on the government means public sector pay growth is... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2026 – Key themes and possible surprises We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Our forecasts in 2025 – Inflation miss, Bank Rate hit At this time of year it is useful to look back at how your forecasts have done and to learn from any mistakes to improve your future forecasts. Both we and the consensus underestimated inflation again... 12th December 2025 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Minimum wage hike another headwind to employment The 4.1% rise in the minimum wage scheduled for April 2026 will support wage growth, particularly for workers on lower incomes, but by further raising businesses’ labour costs it will probably... 5th December 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor puts MPs and the markets ahead of growth In this week’s Budget, the Chancellor pulled off the delicate balancing act of not upsetting Labour MPs, who wanted higher spending, and investors, who wanted to see fiscal discipline. But the... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Reeves and Bailey play conflicting parts in policy pantomime Raising taxes in next Wednesday’s Budget a month before Christmas day will make the Chancellor look like Scrooge. But we now think that, due to the weaker news on activity and inflation in recent... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
