UK Economics Weekly The risks to inflation from rising shipping costs We think shipping costs would have to rise a lot further before having a significant bearing on consumer price inflation. Even so, the ongoing rise in shipping rates presents yet another upside risk... 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slump in new homes makes housing target a stretch Given the UK recently got much closer to the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year than is acknowledged, you might think that the Planning and Infrastructure Bill announced in the King... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Spain versus England: An economics match-up If the economic outlook translated to success on the football pitch, faster GDP growth and lower interest rates may mean Spain has the edge over England to win the men’s Euros on Sunday night. We're... 12th July 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The key milestones ahead as Starmer enters No. 10 As the dust settles on the election result, there will be a lot of discussion about what comes next. We think Labour may move quickly on its low-cost supply side reforms, such as overhauling planning... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A beacon of economic and political stability? While we don’t expect Labour to rush to deviate from its manifesto if, as the polls suggest, it wins next week’s general election, the market reaction to the upcoming French election reinforces the... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key economic implications of a Labour govt Since Labour’s fiscal plans are very similar to the current government’s and as Labour is unlikely to deviate from its manifesto quickly, we doubt we will be ripping up our economic forecasts on Day 1... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of... 14th June 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The disconnect between the tax and spending plans While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a... 7th June 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority? With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economic tailwind for the election winner While the economic data released between now and the general election on 4 th July is unlikely to have a big influence on the result, further falls in inflation, interest rates and gilt yields may... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Will inflation be below 2% for the first time in 3 years? Next Wednesday’s release of April’s CPI inflation data could prove momentous if we’re right in thinking that inflation fell from 3.2% in March to below the 2.0% target for the first time in three... 17th May 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly No need to panic about a US-style surge in GDP (yet) The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 was the largest quarterly rise since Q4 2021 and has triggered fears that the UK could be heading for a US-style surge in GDP growth that prevents inflation from... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OECD too gloomy, rebound in job vacancies fleeting Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall further than most expect explains why we think the OECD’s recent take on the UK economy is too gloomy. And while the recent rebound in job vacancies could... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stock market rally only a small support for consumers Our equity and house price forecasts imply household net wealth will rise significantly over the next three years. Even so, we estimate that household net wealth as a share of disposable incomes will... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Global and domestic inflation risks mount We still think that the flatlining of the economy over the past two years will dampen price pressures by enough to result in CPI inflation falling below the 2% target in April and below 1.0% later... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK heading for a US-style stalling in inflation? There are no obvious signs that the UK will follow in the US’s footsteps and that the downward trend in UK inflation will soon stall. But the risks are tilted towards inflation proving stickier and... 12th April 2024 · 8 mins read