UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Weak economy to weigh on property recovery The economic outlook has worsened over the past couple of months, which supports our call that the recovery in commercial property will be modest by past standards. Admittedly, interest rates are set... 19th February 2025 · 26 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Budget measures to weaken property recovery The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. And with the spread of gilt yields over... 22nd November 2024 · 26 mins read
Event CRE Drop-In: The residential outlook – Europe vs the US and the case for outperformance 1731423600 Residential’s growing share of investor portfolios speaks to the buzz around its potential to keep providing outsized returns. But will residential continue to deliver?
UK Commercial Property Outlook Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns Commercial property yields and capital values have stabilised in recent months, which has encouraged investors to dip their toes back into the sector. But the recovery is set to be a weak one... 22nd August 2024 · 26 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Residential outperforms within a modest recovery Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total... 30th May 2024 · 27 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A recovery, but not much of one With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any... 23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Decline in risk-free rates to stabilize returns Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will peak by the end of 2023. That will help stabilize capital values, but, given historically narrow yield... 24th November 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns underpinned by income After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 21st August 2023 · 23 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Dogged inflation means more yield rises to come Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for... 30th May 2023 · 24 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns to stabilise in 2023 after brutal 2022 The surge in yields seen in 2022 will not be repeated in 2023. With much of the repricing occurring last year we think all-property equivalent yields will see only a modest rise of 30bps this year... 24th February 2023 · 27 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Being patient with the pivot Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation... 30th November 2022 · 13 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Recession to hit rental growth as yields rise The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with... 28th November 2022 · 28 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Pound to plumb new depths Our forecast that the energy crisis will push the euro-zone and UK economies into recession while the US gets away with a milder slowdown suggests that the euro and the pound will weaken further... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Cost-of-living crisis to weigh on property returns Surging inflation and the upcoming recession will cut real household disposable incomes, which are set to see their largest fall on record. That drop in spending power will hit demand for all property... 23rd August 2022 · 29 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Interest rate rises hasten property slowdown The worsening monetary outlook is expected to weigh on property performance. With inflation set to peak at 10% y/y that will force interest rate to 3.0% next year. This will reverse the recent... 20th May 2022 · 26 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Property recovery moves down a gear The worst of the Omicron wave appears to have passed and we expect growth to rebound later this year, albeit weighed down by weak consumer income growth. But persistently high inflation is now set to... 18th February 2022 · 26 mins read
