UK Commercial Property Update Can regional industrial rents outperform? In contrast to most of the past 20 years, RoUK industrial rental growth has almost matched the South East over the past couple of quarters. But that is unlikely to last. The boost to demand for big... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italy retail rent growth to slow, but continues to lead The surge in Italian prime retail rents over the past year is likely to give way in 2024, as inflation falls back and consumer spending stagnates. But the strong fundamentals that have supported this... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property returns to stabilise, if not shine Stubbornly high inflation pushed risk-free rates, and yields, somewhat higher than we had anticipated by the end of 2023. By contrast, rental growth proved surprisingly resilient even as the economy... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 23) Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will flat-line in Q4. That will help stabilise capital values, but given historically narrow yield spreads... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 23) Declining mortgage rates have already generated a significant improvement in demand, with the new buyer enquiries and sales expectations balances recording their strongest readings for over a year and... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 23) All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go... 4th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial bubble poses a small risk to rents With hindsight, part of the boom in the industrial sector seen during and after the pandemic now looks like a bubble. That raises the risk that the overhang of assets started during that period of... 1st December 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Falling mortgage rates won't spark major recovery Housing market activity is likely to recover from here, driven by falling mortgage rates. That said, they are set to remain high relative to recent history. Our view is that mortgage rates won’t drop... 21st November 2023 · 15 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Prices to bottom out, but activity will remain soft Surprisingly resilient demand, high inflation, and limited supply mean a severe drop in house prices will be avoided. With the peak in mortgage rates now behind us and the labour market in good shape... 21st November 2023 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental affordability at its worst for over a decade While the official measure of rental growth is running at record highs, pay has risen even faster. So, at face value rental affordability is good by historic standards. But that doesn’t account for... 13th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 23) The past prices balance remained deeply negative in October contradicting the 1% m/m increases in house prices recorded by both Halifax and Nationwide. But a recovery in buyer enquiries suggests the... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Resurgence in London office demand unlikely to last Active demand for London office space hit a four year high in Q3, but we doubt that will drive a decline in vacancy rates. Most of the rise will reflect churn as firms make moves that had been delayed... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 22nd September 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Record fall in passing rents highlights office weakness The surprising strength of office market rents looks to reflect the increased use of incentives. Indeed, passing rents have seen a sharp decline, with all-office annual growth recently falling to a... 15th September 2023 · 4 mins read
