China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) Today’s data suggest that capital outflows picked up sharply last month, leading the People’s Bank to resume selling FX in order to prop up the value of the renminbi. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Winners and losers from slower growth in China The combination of slowing investment alongside continued strong consumption growth in China is having a major impact on the pattern of growth in the rest of Asia. Hong Kong and Vietnam have been the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The loss of 35,700 jobs in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 7.1%, from 7.0%, was party related to the completion of the recent Federal election. The significant loss in private... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The 211,000 gain in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the 35,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, would appear to seal an interest rate hike at the Fed's upcoming FOMC... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery regaining pace, but looking unbalanced The UK economy appears to be regaining a little momentum, but the nature of the recovery is looking quite unbalanced. The breakdown of Q3’s 0.5% quarterly rise in real GDP showed solid growth in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Tentative signs of Q4 growth pick-up After the further slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in the third quarter, more timely survey indicators such as the composite PMI have offered tentative evidence of a renewed acceleration in Q4... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling to keep playing piggy in the middle While monetary policy looks set to start moving in opposite directions in the US and euro-zone very soon, no change looks likely in the UK in the near future. Sterling is therefore likely to be caught... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Current Account & Government Finances (Q3) The latest data on net exports and government spending/investment suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter was a little bit stronger than we thought at around 0.9% q/q. This supports the... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia’s sanctions on Turkey The economic impact of the Russian sanctions on Turkey announced this weekend will, in general, probably be limited. Our best estimate of the maximum losses to the Turkish economy is around 0.5% of... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3) Sweden’s economy posted yet another decent expansion in Q3, which was encouragingly broad-based. But Danish GDP contracted due to weak net exports, suggesting that the euro-zone’s summer slowdown may... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic rebound may already be fading The evidence suggests that the economy stumbled at the end of the third quarter, casting doubt about its capacity to survive the worsening oil price collapse. With non-exports misfiring and business... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fears of Asia slowdown overdone For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in Asia, regional growth remains remarkably stable. That said, there are still no signs of recovery, with exports again acting as a drag on growth in the third... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Nearing the bottom We expect the economic downturn in Latin America to bottom out towards the turn of this year and conditions to improve in 2016. However, the recovery will be slow-going and uneven. For a start, the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate debate heats up in Indonesia The war of words between Bank Indonesia (BI) and the government is heating up after the country’s vice president, Jusuf Kalla, earlier this week renewed its call for the central bank to cut interest... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
