India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rise in the trade balance in November is consistent with the contribution from net exports to GDP growth rising sharply in the fourth quarter but the weakness in imports suggests domestic... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November’s sharp falls in export and import volumes point to another weak month for activity and suggest that GDP stagnated in the fourth quarter. But given that the trade weakness in November was... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit to $43.1bn in November, from $46.9bn, was driven by another fall in imports that will be reversed in the coming months. Nevertheless, net trade appears to have... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Dec.) The official foreign exchange reserves figures suggest that the PBOC continued to refrain from direct FX intervention last month on the back of easing trade tensions. With outflows moderating – and... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to cut again, Sri Lanka on slow road to recovery Minutes from the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) November rate meeting reveal that while only one of the seven members of its Monetary Policy Board voted for a cut, other members also struck a dovish tone. We... 20th December 2019 · 9 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) Import volumes probably fell more sharply than export volumes in Q4 so net trade should have provided a boost to GDP growth. That’s hardly a cause for optimism though as the weakness in imports... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Phase One deal doesn’t mark the end of the trade war The details of the reported “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China are sketchy and we are not convinced that it will hold. While the deal removes a downside risk, it does not justify a change... 16th December 2019 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Phase One agreement not a big deal for the economy The “Phase One” trade deal apparently agreed with China is a small positive for the outlook to the extent that it removes the threat of further tariffs. But we doubt the rollback of existing tariffs... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Little threat from wider trade deficit India’s monthly goods trade deficit widened in November and we expect this to continue into 2020. Nevertheless, with imports of key commodities set to remain low, we think that the external shortfall... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China trade deal, infrastructure spending A “Phase One” trade deal has reportedly been reached, including a larger-than-expected rollback of US tariffs. But the resulting boost to China’s economy will be modest and the deal still looks at... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in GDP in October is unlikely to influence many people’s vote in Thursday’s election, but it could prompt some more MPC members to vote for lower interest rates in the coming months. 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update WTO debilitation adds to signs of end of globalisation The WTO looks set to lose its power to rule on trade disputes this week. This will not immediately transform the economic or policy outlook since the body had been effectively side-lined already. But... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
