Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price growth may reach 7% House price growth retained its strong momentum in September and our leading index suggests the rally has further to run. But with affordability still very stretched, we suspect that the housing... 1st October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 25) We expect the recent drop in mortgage rates to give the housing market a short-term boost, although buying activity will remain low by historic standards. We expect the 30-year fixed rate to stay... 30th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2025) The 0.1% m/m fall in house prices in July marks the fifth consecutive monthly decline, meaning it now looks unlikely that prices will rise this year, as we had previously thought. That said, we still... 30th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Lower rates to give mortgage lending a short-term lift We expect recent mortgage rate declines to support stronger lending and sales, prompting us to raise our end-2025 existing home sales forecast to 4.35m annualised, up from 4.15m. However, based on our... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2025) There is little evidence in August’s money and lending figures that concerns over further tax rises in the Budget on 26th November are having a big influence on households’ financial decisions as of... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP... 26th September 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt, Saudi & Dubai real estate Lebanon’s Eurobonds are trading at their strongest in over four years as investors’ hopes of a sovereign debt restructuring build amid the new government’s reform push. But we’d caution that, for a... 25th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2025) The low-and-barely changed level of existing home sales in August is yet more evidence of the quagmire the existing home market has been stuck in for a couple of years now. While the downward trend in... 25th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Possible tax rises in the Budget on 26th November risk further restraining housing activity next year. What’s more, our new forecast for 10-year gilt yields to fall from 4.71% now to 4.25% next year... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Aug. 2025) Lower borrowing costs supported a surge in new home sales in August, and could drive further increases in the coming months, given the continued decline in mortgage rates since then. 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Final value falls deferred again, but US CRE still overvalued Our view that capital values still need to fall by 5% at the all-property level keeps our forecasts below consensus. Based on our forecast of a long-term 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5%, appraised cap... 22nd September 2025 · 21 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Aug. 2025) The weakness in August housing starts was as expected, especially after July’s hard-to-explain strength. While homebuilders have recently become more optimistic about prospects for housing demand, as... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2025) The rise in home sales in August was a little better than expected and, while house prices did edge down, there was little in the latest housing data to make us doubt our view that house prices are... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed has the green light to cut The August CPI was the last hurdle to the Fed lowering interest rates next week, and without any marked pickup in inflation, a cut looks certain. Despite calls from Trump loyalists for a 50bp move, we... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) A recession should just about be avoided, but the economy is teetering on the edge. We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate... 11th September 2025 · 0 mins read
