Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Takeaways from our housing roundtables Alongside the publication of our Q2 UK Housing Outlook this week, we held a series of roundtable meetings for clients in London. Here we sum up our thoughts on three key questions which recurred... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr.) House prices edged up in March and the jump in the sales-to-new listing ratio implies they will rise further this quarter. With affordability still very stretched, we assume that there will be a... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Housing downturns starting to take toll on economies Housing downturns are well underway in many countries and house prices and activity generally have further to fall. Construction activity is already suffering as a result. While it is hard to detect... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: UK house prices go over the edge – how far will they fall? 1669888800 Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell and Andrew Wishart, who leads our UK housing coverage, held a briefing on the shape of the coming downturn i
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will property be a problem again? The UK property market has a long history of either causing or worsening recessions. But that history has taught both banks and regulators a lesson. So while higher debt payments, falling property... 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Bigger house price falls loom One result of the rise in near-term interest rate expectations is a deterioration in the outlook for global housing markets. We already expected house price falls in a handful of countries. Now those... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why this price correction will be nothing like the GFC Although we expect a comparable rise in interest rates to that which preceded the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the risk of a credit-driven bust in the commercial real estate market is low... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Property the weak link as interest rates rise We think that property markets are the weak link when it comes to the impact of tightening monetary policy. A modest rise in interest rates might only cause price falls in a few obvious candidates... 25th March 2022 · 22 mins read
