China Economics Update Official GDP data set to remain political tool We shouldn’t expect China to have a statistical system as robust as those in the developed world. But the problems in China go beyond those normally found in an emerging economy. The biggest is that... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Revised GDP data as open to question as before China’s statistics bureau last week announced changes to how its GDP figures are compiled. In principle, the shift should improve the precision of the data. In practice, the changes to historical real... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Can India capitalise on its demographic dividend? The UN’s projection that India will become the world’s most populous nation as soon as 2022 has refocused attention on the country’s remarkable demographic potential and the impact this could have on... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Longstanding error still exaggerating GDP growth China’s statistics bureau responded today to our argument that glitches in the way it calculates GDP have caused it to overstate growth in recent quarters. It has not laid our doubts to rest. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China’s impact on the world Structural changes in China’s economy are transforming its economic relationship with the rest of the world, as domestic demand shifts from investment to consumption, outbound tourism surges and the... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More evidence GDP growth overstated Flaws in how China’s GDP data are calculated exaggerated both the downward pressure on prices in the first quarter and the rate at which the economy is growing. 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's GDP set for statistical boost The government is tomorrow likely to announce an upward revision of perhaps 5~10% to its estimate of the size of China’s economy. Nothing will have changed on the ground, but the data revisions will... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update FX reserves are no magic bullet in a debt crisis The foreign exchange reserves of the People’s Bank would be of little use in the event of a debt or banking crisis in China. The bulk of the costs of any clean-up would ultimately still be paid by the... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is consumption being undercounted? A growing number of economists are challenging the view that China invests too much and consumes too little by arguing that the official data grossly understate consumption and overstate investment... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is slower growth here to stay? China’s economic slowdown is the result of policy tightening and weak global demand but it also reflects structural shifts in China’s economy. As a result, expectations for a strong and sustained... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can we trust the data? Questions are again being asked about whether we can trust China’s economic data. Our attempts to track the speed of the economy using our China Activity Proxy do not support suggestions of widespread... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How could China help the rest of the world? China has room to stimulate demand in the event of a slump in growth and could also play a role in stabilising global markets. But there is less space for a major stimulus today than in 2008. As then... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is investment-driven growth running out of steam? China’s investment-driven economic model is not showing signs of strain at present but growth is unlikely to be as smooth as most expect over the next few years. We have pencilled in a well-below... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can Asia avoid the middle-income trap? Most of emerging Asia should continue to grow rapidly for at least another decade, and much longer if the right policy choices are made. The key exception is China where, despite a bright long-run... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What lessons should China learn from Japan's lost decade? Today’s tensions between China and the US have many echoes of those between Japan and the US in the 1980s including, most clearly, over the exchange rate. The lesson for China is not, as some have... 8th November 2010 · 14 mins read
