US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Although headline retail sales rose at a weaker pace in April, growth in underlying sales remained strong and past months’ gains were revised higher, which supports our view that the weakness in first... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: lessons from 2001/02 There are some similarities between Argentina’s current crisis and 2001/02 crisis. But there are also critical differences, not least the fact that the peso is now free-floating and the authorities... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), IP (Mar.) & German ZEW (May) We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1 largely reflected temporary effects. So we remain optimistic that the economy will perform better over the rest of the year. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Dutch GDP (Q1) The sharper-than-expected slowdowns in both German and Dutch GDP in Q1 suggest that there is a risk that euro-zone GDP will be revised down from the first estimate of 0.4% q/q. But with Q1’s weakness... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Finland GDP (Q1) Norway’s economy did not perform as well in Q1 as the headline growth numbers imply. But we remain optimistic about growth over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, Finland’s economy put in a strong... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Industrial activity was buoyed last month by the easing of pollution controls. But there are signs in the rest of today’s data that the broader economy is losing momentum. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus The coming slowdown in China China has had a stellar run during the past few decades, achieving sustained rates of growth only even previously seen in a handful of emerging economies. Most major forecasters expect this... 14th May 2018 · 24 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Growth slowed in Q1, but Q2 should be better Ahead of Q1 GDP releases over the coming weeks, the official monthly data suggest that growth slowed in Switzerland and the Nordics. Indeed, retail sales in Switzerland increased by 0.6% in Q4 last... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (May) The continued strength of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May doesn’t offer much encouragement as confidence has been a poor guide to spending in recent times. Nonetheless... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s better-than-expected industrial production data from Mexico, which were the result of a surge in manufacturing output, support our view that GDP growth this year will be stronger than most... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Macron’s first year bodes well for France One year into President Emmanuel Macron’s term, the French economy is performing well. Annual GDP growth is healthy and the labour market is recovering steadily. But this owes little to Macron’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) Indian industrial production growth slowed in March, but the rate of growth is still reasonably healthy and the sector appears to have performed well across Q1 as a whole. Looking ahead, prospects for... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait too long After the sea of downbeat economic news in recent weeks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to keep rates unchanged at its meeting in May came as little surprise. Of course, the MPC’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q1 GDP figures The batch of preliminary Q1 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due next week should confirm that, while regional growth peaked last year, it remained relatively strong at the start of 2018. The pace of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. We think GDP growth has now peaked though and will slow over the coming months as headwinds from tightening... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: A one-year progress report on President Moon The highlight of Moon Jae-in’s first year as president has been the improvement in relations with North Korea. On the economic front, however, Moon has largely steered clear of the kind of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
