UK Economics Update UK GDP revisions don’t alter scope for future growth or rate cuts The small upward revision to the level of real GDP doesn’t mean the economy will be any stronger in the future. And the downward revisions to some measures of inflation won’t influence the Bank of... 19th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: GDP contraction should prove short-lived The unexpected contraction in the Israeli economy in Q2 amid the war with Iran should reverse this quarter, and so we think it is unlikely that the Bank of Israel will cut interest rates at its... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Property downturn to weigh on Korea’s economy Weak investment will remain a drag on Korea’s economy over the coming quarters, as a prolonged downturn in the property sector continues to weigh on construction. 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2025) The Chilean economy isn’t as weak as the slowdown in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. This, alongside the... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tourists adjusting timing of holidays but not location Despite concerns that over-crowding and heatwaves might reduce tourism to southern Europe, trips to the region are growing at a faster rate than in northern Europe. Instead, tourism has been growing... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Q2 GDP (August 2025) Economic growth in Thailand slowed in the second quarter of the year, and we think the economy will struggle over the coming months as weaker exports, slower government spending and weak private... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2025) The weaker-than-expected 0.5% q/q expansion in Colombia’s economy is unlikely to change the central bank’s thinking and we remain comfortable with our above-consensus interest rate forecast. 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: All eyes on Alaska as Trump and Putin take centre stage The scheduled meeting between presidents Trump and Putin later today has focused attention on whether there will be any positive news to end the war in Ukraine, but developments over the course of... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Shift in rate expectations in Brazil, Chile set for slowdown The latest data out of Brazil point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, which, alongside softening inflation, has led to a shift in the debate towards interest rate cuts, perhaps by year-end. This... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (July 2025) The small decline in industrial production in July was driven by the mining sector. Manufacturing output held up, and more timely survey data points to a small rebound in August. Once again, it is... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Malaysian growth to slow, Indonesia’s 2026 budget Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.4% y/y in Q2 as strong investment was offset by weak exports. Looking ahead, growth is likely to slow in the near term as planned fiscal tightening and subdued global... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2025) The small rebound in manufacturing sales in June will provide little relief, given that it barely offsets the weakness in April and May and the breakdown shows that US tariffs still have some sectors... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jul. 2025) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales in July, paired with the upward revision to May and June’s data, shows households continue to spend in healthy amounts despite the threat of tariffs – especially... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Can the economy maintain this strength? We don’t think the surprisingly strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year will carry over into the second half. The weak global economy suggests exports will drop back and the... 15th August 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin and the euro-zone economy We do not expect President Trump’s meeting with President Putin to make a breakthrough on the Ukraine conflict. But even if there is a "deal" in the coming months the implications for the wider... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss Flash GDP (Q2 2025) Growth slowed significantly in Switzerland in the second quarter as tariff front-running eased. The economy is likely to expand only slowly the next couple of quarters as high US tariffs and elevated... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
