Japan Economics Update

Tariff uncertainty may delay BoJ rate hikes until 2026

Our base case remains that Japan will reach a deal with the US to fend off the threatened 25% US tariff. If that deal is reached soon and includes no or only a modest increase in the US tariff rate...

8th July 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Economic Outlook

UK Outlook: Labour market cracking

The falls in employment triggered by the Chancellor’s rises in National Insurance Contributions for employers and the minimum wage have increased our confidence that it is only a matter of time before...

7th July 2025 · 18 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

The Trump-Petro rift and the risks for Colombia

Colombia’s shift from being a staunch US ally to embracing China has been one of the starkest geopolitical moves of the last few years. This may put Colombia into President Trump’s crosshairs for...

7th July 2025 · 9 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running

The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will...

7th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

German Industrial Production (May)

The better-than-expected German industrial production figures for May are partly due to continued tariff front-running in the pharmaceuticals sector, but output in other sectors is also proving more...

7th July 2025 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Vietnam’s export success only partly due to rerouting

Vietnam’s US-bound exports have surged since the US imposed very high tariffs on imports from China. While the export figures are overstating the benefits to Vietnam’s economy due to a surge in...

7th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile’s communist candidate, Mexico’s weak economy

The victory for communist candidate, Jeannette Jara, in the Chilean governing coalition’s presidential primary election was received warmly by markets – her presence on the ballot is seen as...

4th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: NBP delivers dovish surprise, could the BoI be next?

The 25bp cut by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week caught many – but not us – off guard, and we think that two further interest rate cuts lie in store over the rest of this year. Meanwhile...

4th July 2025 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: Could the euro’s strength prompt a July cut?

With the euro going from strength to strength and energy prices having dropped back the case could arguably be made for the ECB to cut rates in July and some policymakers have sounded concerned about...

4th July 2025 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Hopes grow over strong monsoon and US trade deal

The southwest monsoon has fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the...

4th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday?

Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we...

4th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Trade negotiations go down to the wire

The temporary pause on the 24% “reciprocal” tariff Trump imposed on imports from Japan in April is due to expire next week. As things stand, a deal with Japan looks unlikely and it’s possible that...

4th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Spanish house prices will continue to climb

High income growth and immigration are likely to continue to drive increases in house prices in Spain over the coming years. Demand will be further boosted by the recent fall in mortgage interest...

3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

US Weekly: Reconciliation bill inches away from finish line

Although the cost of the final reconciliation bill looks set to be much larger than the House originally planned, it will not result in any meaningful stimulus for the economy. President Trump will...

3rd July 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Q1 data wrap up for Saudi Arabia and Egypt

The recent deterioration in Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit is likely to continue on the back of lower oil receipts. While large FX buffers will prevent major macro strains for now, the Kingdom...

3rd July 2025 · 8 mins read