US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The decline in underlying retail sales in February was offset by upward revisions to previous months, but real consumption growth still appears to have slowed sharply in the first quarter. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown to be steeper than most expect Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in three years in Q4 of last year, but our GDP Tracker points to a renewed slowdown at the start of 2019. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Stockbuilding ahead of Brexit undoubtedly flattered the manufacturing PMI in March. Nonetheless, the manufacturing sector should support GDP growth in Q1. And the increase in the employment and new... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.), Final Mfg PMIs (Mar.) March’s decline in euro-zone headline inflation was largely due to the timing of Easter, so the continued weakness in the manufacturing PMIs will be a bigger worry for the ECB. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in March, suggesting that power cuts and soft demand weighed on the sector. Though the measure has a tendency to overstate the weakness of manufacturing... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs for March provide further evidence that the Swiss and Swedish economies made a weak start to 2019. This underlines our view that policymakers there will be in no rush to tighten... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) PMIs rose across much of Emerging Asia last month. But it’s too soon to call a turning point. The PMIs for the region’s biggest manufacturing sectors still point to a contraction in output, while... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The strength of the latest survey data suggests that growth in China may already be bottoming out. But there are still reasons to be cautious about the near-term outlook. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The Q1 Tankan revealed a sharp deterioration in activity at the start of the year. That suggests that the easing in capacity and staff shortages that started in manufacturing should soon spread to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong January likely followed by weak February The consensus-beating jump in monthly GDP in January means that first-quarter growth will not be as weak as we previously expected. Growth will still be well below potential, though, and our forecast... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) January’s 0.3% rise in monthly GDP was far better than expected, and its broad-based nature lends support to the view that the economy’s recent soft patch was mainly due to temporary factors. But with... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No sign of Brexit panic There are some signs that households are saving more, possibly in response to concerns about Brexit, but consumers aren’t panicking. And a higher saving rate now could lead to a more significant... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Quarterly National Accounts (Q4 2018) Despite the ongoing impasse in Westminster on Brexit, weak GDP growth of 0.2% q/q at the end of last year probably marks a trough. The robust monthly increase in GDP in January and indications that... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) With just two weeks to go until Brexit and uncertainty higher than ever, it is reassuring that the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence held steady in March and consumers’ view of both their... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Mar.) The sharp pick-up in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in March does not change our view that GDP growth in Switzerland will slow this year. However, it supports our forecast that the economy will hold... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s at stake in Ukraine’s presidential election? Ukraine’s presidential election this Sunday is set to be a close race but, whoever ultimately wins, it looks like the recent shift away from orthodox policymaking will continue. Dollar bond spreads... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
