US Rapid Response US Productivity (Q4 2025) The productivity data released today confirm that, thanks to the large negative benchmark payroll revisions for 2025, productivity growth was stronger than originally estimated over the first three... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The jump in energy prices since the outbreak of the Iran conflict poses an upside risk to our inflation forecast and downside risk to our GDP forecast. However, even if prices remain at their current... 5th March 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Jan. 26) The tepid rise in consumer spending lessens the urgency for the RBA to hike rates at its upcoming meeting in mid-March. Even so, the Bank has more work to do in order to close the positive output gap... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Feb. 2026) The broad-based strength in the February ISM Services Index, along with the recent improvement in the manufacturing index, suggests the underlying economy is reaccelerating. Indeed, it leaves our... 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Middle East conflict impact tourism? The conflict in the Middle East risks damaging the perception of safety in the region’s tourist hubs, especially in the Gulf. History shows that such crises can trigger steep declines in visitor... 4th March 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China’s rebalancing conundrum A major policy push to boost domestic demand would both reflate China’s economy and reduce its large current account surplus, which is a source of tension with other countries. But this looks unlikely... 4th March 2026 · 9 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2026) The PMIs point to an improvement in economic momentum last month, driven by manufacturing and services. The recent decline in US tariffs should provide a modest tailwind to exports and manufacturing... 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 2025) Although the underlying details were a mixed bag, we suspect the RBA will still be concerned that growth is running above potential in Australia. 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s paradise punctured? Iran’s attacks over the past few days have struck at the heart of Dubai’s economy. The near-term hit to GDP could be larger than in other parts of the Gulf (although that will depend on the length of... 3rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2025) Continued strong export growth supported Brazil’s economy in Q4 but, at 0.1% q/q, GDP growth remained tepid. Geopolitical tensions and higher global energy prices probably won’t prevent the central... 3rd March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2026) The essentially unchanged level of the ISM Manufacturing Index in February, after the prior month’s surge, suggests that the domestic factory sector is benefiting from stronger global conditions tied... 2nd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and spillovers to the GCC Iran’s strikes on the Gulf economies have punctured the perceived security and stability of the region. This will lead to disruptions to non-oil activity in the near term and, if the attacks persist... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money and Lending (Jan. 2026) January’s money and lending data support other evidence that suggests the economy strengthened at the start of the year. The growing risk is that an inflationary shock from the events in the Middle... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
