Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Bulgaria gets the green light, Poland election fallout The European Commission gave its approval for Bulgaria join the euro-zone next year and, while the macroeconomic implications of euro adoption will be small, geopolitically it will bind the country... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal drama, no TACO for Mexico this week We doubt that the Colombian government will manage to assuage investors’ concerns about the country's public finances when it publishes its fiscal plans next Friday. Elsewhere, the political wrangling... 6th June 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Equity outperformance to fade, RBI’s bumper rate cut Despite the bright near-term economic outlook for India, we suspect Indian equities’ recent strong run will prove short-lived. Meanwhile, we think that the RBI's easing cycle is now over following its... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariff front-running fades, disinflation continues While policymakers at the ECB indicated this week that they may be at the end of their easing cycle, we think they will probably make one more rate cut this year, in September. Meanwhile, we agree... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Soft GDP data put July cut in play for RBA With Australia's economic recovery faltering, there is a growing risk that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in July, rather than in August as we currently forecast. However, even if the Bank... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ends easing cycle with a bang The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps (to 5.50%) while also changing its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” today are clear... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (April) German industrial production and export figures for April suggest that the boost to activity from US tariff front running is already reversing and that underlying industrial activity remains weak... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably has one cut left The ECB’s decision to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.0% was in line with expectations and the messaging in the press conference suggests that a pause at the next meeting in July is most likely. We... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi better placed to smooth non-oil slowdown The most frequent question we received from clients during recent meetings in the Gulf was whether lower oil prices would lead to a sharp slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector akin to that in 2014... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Ireland GDP (Q1 2025) We think that the huge upward revision to Ireland’s Q1 GDP data this morning, to show a rapid expansion that was in large part driven by tariff front-running, will lead to euro-zone growth being... 5th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Steel tariff hike deals fresh blow to manufacturers Any short-term boost to domestic steel and aluminium production from higher tariffs is likely to be short-lived and offset by declining output in metal-using industries – making the tariff hike a drag... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2025) The surprise fall in the ISM services index for May suggests that tariff effects are weighing on activity outside of the manufacturing sector, but the Fed is likely to be more concerned by the further... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The strong start to the year shouldn’t be mistaken as a sign the UK economy will be able to shrug off the large rises in business taxes that took effect in April and the lingering uncertainty over US... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMIs: a soft year ahead for Gulf non-oil sectors May’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf point to a softer Q2 for non-oil sectors and the backdrop of lower oil prices will likely result in less fiscal support and weaker confidence that add to the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2025) Although activity was off to a poor start in 2025, the persistent strength in unit labour cost growth will constrain the RBA’s ability to provide much policy support. 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
