Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2026) The fall in the German Ifo BCI and the Composite PMI in March suggest that the renewed rise in energy prices could derail the tentative recovery in the German economy seen in recent months. We expect... 25th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Mar. 2026) March’s flash PMIs show that the conflict in the Middle East is already going a long way to boosting inflation and extinguishing GDP growth. And this is just the start. 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2026) March’s euro-zone PMI survey shows that higher energy costs are weighing on demand and causing input prices to rise rapidly. 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing the China shock for the euro-zone The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. We expect the EU to impose more trade defence... 23rd March 2026 · 16 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fewer rate cuts but fiscal easing won’t come to the rescue China's central bank left the loan prime rates on hold today. With higher oil prices set to keep the economy out of deflationary territory, we're now only expecting the central bank to deliver one... 20th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes now the “base case” In light of this week’s further rise in energy prices and damage to Qatar’s energy infrastructure we have revised our euro-zone forecasts. In our new “base case” the ECB hikes rates three times this... 20th March 2026 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy shortages rather than prices the imminent threat for India Regulated prices insulate consumers in India from surges in global energy prices but they are no protection against – and, indeed, they contribute to – shortages of fuels and related products. We’ve... 20th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom cuts, Venezuelan oil to the rescue? Brazil's central bank kicked off its easing cycle this week and, given how high real interest rates are, we think that it's one of the few EMs that has room to loosen policy further even if global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Focus How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy? AI-related spending is giving a significant boost to aggregate demand and GDP growth in some countries. The biggest beneficiaries so far are the US, where the bulk of the spending is occurring, and... 20th March 2026 · 29 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Industry starting to suffer from Middle East conflict Shortages of naphtha resulting from the conflict in the Middle East are evoking the image of severe disruptions in Japan’s manufacturing sector as happened during the pandemic. With some countries in... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict at a tipping point? The conflict in the Middle East has escalated further over the past week, with damage to energy infrastructure in the region now the key concern. Comments from QatarEnergy’s CEO that LNG export... 19th March 2026 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update High oil prices risk stalling nascent manufacturing recovery Sustained high oil prices would stall the nascent manufacturing recovery by weighing on global demand. The data centre buildout would likely go on unaffected, however, sustaining strong demand for hi... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2025) With the economy still operating with substantial excess capacity, we think the RBNZ will leave rates on hold for several months to come. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty around the... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
