US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The rise in industrial production in November looks less impressive with a peek at the breakdown, which shows manufacturing output flat last month, and considering the move simply reverses a fall in... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q3 Initial) The 4.3% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was well above the consensus estimate at 3.3%, but broadly in line with our own 4.5% estimate. A lot of other forecasters missed that this is essentially... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct) The weakness of GDP over October and November raises the chance that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter. Even accounting for the effect of strikes in various service sectors, that weakness... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2025 Final) Although GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% q/q in Q3, the shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than the first estimate suggested. That said, the economy is still... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2026 – Key themes and possible surprises We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal pullback weighing on growth Fiscal spending has slowed sharply since October despite ample fiscal space in the current budget, suggesting that local governments have been failing to make full use of the available funds earmarked... 19th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals additional rate hikes are in the pipeline When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov. 2025) November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three things to watch in 2026 Our India Economic Outlook for Q1 2026 and accompanying dashboard contain all of our latest analysis and forecasts for India’s economy and financial markets. In our final Weekly of 2025, we highlight... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI investment boom to power economy We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on... 18th December 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB still neutral on interest rates The tone of today’s ECB press conference was fairly bullish on the economic outlook, but Christine Lagarde stuck rigidly to neutral messaging on future interest rate decisions. While policy changes... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 14 mins read
