Global Economics Update Q2 GDP data show global economy weathering war 19th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: from regional outperformer to laggard The poor performance of Chile’s economy in Q2 has prompted us to revise down our already below-consensus growth forecast to just 0.5% this year. And while we expect a modest pick-up in growth over... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: softer Q2 but reasons to be upbeat The latest batch of activity data from South Africa point to GDP growth softening to around 0.3% q/q in the second quarter. That said, we remain confident in our above-consensus forecast for the... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2026) The strong 1.3% q/q expansion in Colombian GDP in Q2, alongside continued above-target inflation, means that BanRep is likely to deliver an interest rate hike in September (having paused in July). 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) The latest activity data suggest that India’s economy is slowing, but we think GDP growth should average 6.5% in 2026-27 – an enviable rate by global standards. Headline inflation nudged up to a 19... 18th August 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jul. 2026) The small rise in manufacturing output in July told much of the same story of late, with production of high-tech products amid the AI buildout sustaining modest growth in an industrial sector being... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2026) The surprisingly poor Q2 GDP outturn in Chile (output was flat in q/q terms), coming alongside the recent fall in inflation will reduce any pressure on the BCCh to tighten monetary policy and we now... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs benefit if tourists don’t return to the Gulf? The recovery in tourism by non-GCC nationals to the Gulf remains slow. If this persists, shifting travel patterns might result in significant gains in some smaller economies in the Caribbean and the... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Section 338 tariffs further delay a worsening CUSMA The new Section 338 tariffs risk pushing the economy back towards recession, especially if Ottawa’s planned retaliation invites further aggression from the US. Worse still, a renewed trade war muddies... 17th August 2026 (Updated 24th August 2026) · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q2 rebound doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The rapid recovery in Israel’s GDP in Q2 confirms that the start of the Iran war had only a minor and temporary effect on the economy, and GDP growth now looks on course to exceed 4% over this year as... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf tourism still struggling Early signs suggest that tourism in the Gulf, particularly intra-GCC travel, is starting to rebound. That benefits Bahrain’s economy more than most. But tourists from outside the region appear more... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2026) After regaining some ground at the end of Q2, China's economy lost momentum again last month. The silver lining is that the boost to manufacturing activity from AI capex continued to build, and that... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q2 26 Preliminary) GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q2 and with the government still limiting the pass-through from higher energy prices that should remain the case across the second half of the year. 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s next move a hike, but not in September The tameness of the price data for July means we are dropping our call for the Fed to raise interest rates in September. Nonetheless, we are not convinced that the conditions are in place for core... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
