Chief Economist's Note Three big questions about the global economic outlook Last week I participated in a small roundtable with investors and economists. It was notable – if not entirely surprising – that the broad topics of conversation chimed with a lot of recent... 25th September 2024
Latin America Economic Outlook Sluggish growth but stubborn inflation Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus... 19th September 2024 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate... 20th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will the recent wave of EM protests have? The protests that have swept several EMs in recent weeks are likely to have a longer-lasting economic impact in countries with weak balance sheets and/or where they lead to a major shift in policy. To... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Market turmoil and Africa, Uganda and Kenya rate cuts Idiosyncratic factors seemed to play a bigger role than the recent global financial market turmoil in driving African markets this week. But while the fall in oil prices may be overdone, African... 9th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SSA protests will worsen public finance strains Protests that originated in Kenya have spread to neighbouring Uganda and as far afield as Nigeria. The common theme of a weak economic backdrop, endemic corruption and fiscal fears means the region is... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria ways & means, Ethiopia devaluation, SA PMI Nigeria’s government increased the limit of its Ways and Means facility this week, raising concerns that officials are resorting to their bad old ways of deficit monetisation. If tapped persistently... 2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities 8th August 2024, 3:00PM BST How has the level of financial risk evolved among emerging markets over the past three months?
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
