Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The solid 1.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in October indicates that business equipment investment continues to hold up reasonably well in the face of higher borrowing costs, helped by a boost to... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Sep. 2022) Weakness in the manufacturing sector led to “core” machinery orders falling for a second consecutive month in September. Worse still, machine tool orders indicate that the two-month losing streak... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) The October data point to a further loss of momentum, with retail sales dropping sharply amid worsening virus outbreaks. November is shaping up to be even worse. With exports cooling, the property... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Monetary policy will be loosened next year With inflation surprising to the upside in Q3, the Reserve Bank of Australia was forced to revise up its near-term forecasts for inflation in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. What’s more, the... 7th November 2022 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack Xi’s third term starts with COVID quarantines surging On some measures China’s current COVID situation is about as bad as it has ever been. While far fewer infections are being found daily than at the peak of the Omicron wave, new cases are... 1st November 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus What’s behind Brazil’s productivity problem? Brazil’s economy has a deep-seated problem of low productivity growth and it’s hard to see either presidential candidate undertaking the reforms needed to lift investment, strengthen competitive... 28th October 2022 · 17 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Another intervention wouldn’t reverse yen weakness With the yen currently trading just below 149, it now appears to be a question of when and not if policymakers step in again. But as recent weeks and the Asian Financial Crisis have shown, such... 17th October 2022 · 11 mins read
India Economics Weekly A bigger slice of Apple pie Apple’s decision to shift some of its manufacturing into India – and out of China – is an example of how the global economy is “fracturing” into US- and China-aligned blocs: the topic of our 2022... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
