Emerging Europe Economics Update Politics comes into play in Hungary (May 10) Concerns that the new government in Hungary will jeopardise the independence of the National Bank appear to be coming to fruition. While much remains uncertain, it seems clear that PM Orban will now... 18th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish fiscal rule offers hope, but onus still on policymakers Today’s announcement of a seemingly well-designed and sensible fiscal rule in Turkey is an encouraging sign that the government is trying to get to grips with the public finances. But while a rules... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: on course for a strong bounce-back March’s industrial production data from Turkey round off an impressive start of the year for the economy. In light of other positive data releases over recent weeks, we have raised our GDP forecast to... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion risks from Greece high and rising (Apr 10) Concerns over the deepening crisis in Greece have weighed on financial markets across the region over the past couple of weeks. While no country has escaped, the contagion risks appear greatest in... 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal rule not the last word on budget discipline In the absence of a new IMF programme, a fiscal rule could help to reassure markets that Turkey remains committed to maintaining fiscal discipline. But even a well designed fiscal rule requires... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10) Both Poland and the Czech Republic are set to announce new Central Bank governors over the coming months. But we suspect this will do little to alter the policy bias in either country. Poland will be... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey sets out its exit strategy Earlier today the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) outlined its exit strategy from the additional liquidity measures it introduced during the economic crisis. These include plans to switch to a new... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the rise in Turkish consumer spending boost retail rents? The fact that Turkish household consumption growth turned positive in Q4 is encouraging news for retailer occupier demand. But it needs to be set against the substantial increase in supply expected... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey set to lead the region’s recovery Q4 2009 GDP data from Turkey support our view that it will be one of the best performing economies in the region over the next few years. Nonetheless, while growth should impress in the near-term, Q4... 31st March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Too soon to dismiss fiscal risks (Mar 10) Financial markets in Emerging Europe have, for the most part, brushed off sovereign debt concerns in the euro-zone’s periphery. While bond markets sold off earlier this year as the crisis in Greece... 29th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates hikes still not imminent (Mar 10) Market rate expectations have edged down in recent weeks, but we still think that the pace of tightening currently priced in for most countries in the region is too aggressive. While inflation has... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Turkish property yields peaked? Their recent stabilisation suggests that the correction in Turkish property yields may now be over. With a relatively healthy outlook for the economy, and signs already emerging that rental values are... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q4 GDP data a mixed bag (Feb 10) Q4 GDP data, released over the past month, have painted rather a mixed picture. The good news is that a number of countries, notably Russia and Poland, appear to have grown on a quarterly basis. But... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian debt is safer than Turkish debt Spreads on Russian and Turkish foreign currency bonds relative to US Treasuries have moved in lockstep since October 2009. (See Chart 1.) The prospect that commodity prices (and especially oil prices)... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to look through rise in inflation (Feb 10) Although inflation has risen across much of the region in recent months, policymakers remain in no rush to raise interest rates. For a start, the bulk of the pick-up in inflation has been caused by... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
