Emerging Europe Economics Update How much financial support does Ukraine need? As Ukraine’s political transition progresses, attention has turned to the urgent need for external assistance in order to avoid a balance of payments crisis and possibly even a default on its external... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industrial data point to diverging growth paths Industry in the highly-open economies of Central Europe has gathered steam in recent months, with output expanding by as much as 6-7% y/y. Manufacturers have been supported by the strengthening of the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Ukraine? It goes without saying that, with events in Ukraine in an almost constant state of flux, predicting what might happen next is close to impossible. In this Update we outline four factors that will be... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's political crisis takes a heavy toll on the markets Ukraine’s bond market has been pummelled following the escalation of the political crisis in recent days. And the hryvnia has continued to weaken. Elsewhere, Russian and Hungarian assets have... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for “frontier” currencies? “Frontier” currencies have been the hardest hit in the latest bout of EM financial market turmoil. Looking ahead, we think further exchange rate weakness is likely to be concentrated in those... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data likely to point to strengthening recovery The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe due later this month is likely to show that large parts of the region are on the mend, with Poland now the region’s star performer. We will... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the hryvnia? The hryvnia has fallen sharply over the past few days, reaching 9/$ earlier today, its lowest level since 2009. We estimate that the currency needs to fall by a further 15% or so, to around 11/$, in... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil underlines need for greater EM discrimination Market turbulence in Turkey, Ukraine and now Argentina has led to talk of a new crisis sweepingemerging markets (EMs). But the emerging world has become a far more diverse place over the pastdecade... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's central bank walking on a tightrope The Ukrainian National Bank’s decision to loosen its grip on the hryvnia will bring benefits in terms of restoring external competitiveness. But there are near-term risks too, including higher... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A rollercoaster month for Ukraine’s financial markets Escalating political protests caused Ukrainian bond yields and CDS premia to spike at the start of the month. However, following the announcement that Ukraine will receive financial assistance from... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine steps back from the brink, but problems unresolved The outbreak of protests in Ukraine has dominated the headlines over the past month. With FX reserves already at perilously low levels, it had looked like the country could be tipped into a full-blown... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the deflation threat in Central Europe? The weakness of the latest inflation data in Central Europe has sparked fears that, like the euro-zone, the region could be at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In this Watch, we argue that... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to lead the way, Russia & Turkey to disappoint The recovery in Emerging Europe has moved onto a firmer footing in recent months and we expect growth to accelerate over the coming quarters. However, the recovery is likely to be patchy and uneven... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: currency crisis seems a bigger threat than debt default The recent escalation of political protests in Kiev has put Ukraine's fragile external position back in the spotlight. A full-blown balance of payments crisis remains a real risk. The one crumb of... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
