RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Preparing the ground for rate cuts We expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will use the policy meeting scheduled for Thursday 11 th June and the publication of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement to further prepare... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The markets don’t care whether Australia is AAA or AA It is possible that at some point in the next couple of years, Australia will lose its AAA credit rating. While this would be a huge blow for whichever political party is in power at the time, it... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New mortgage restrictions raise rate cut chances The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) plan to tighten its macro-prudential polices in order to tame house price inflation in Auckland could be another sign that it is preparing the ground for a... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s dilemma laid bare The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ edging closer to cutting rates Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) once again left interest rates unchanged today, theshift from a neutral policy bias to an implicit loosening bias supports our view that interest rates... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The petrol-related plunge in headline CPI inflation, to a 15-year low of 0.1% in the first quarter from 0.8% in the fourth quarter, will grab all the headlines, but it is the weakness of underlying... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Dollar parity wouldn't be a big problem for New Zealand While a strengthening of the New Zealand dollar to parity against its Australian counterpart would be an important milestone, it would have little adverse economic impact. Indeed, the recent weakening... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Investment outlook weakens While some of the latest data have suggested that economic activity in Australia has accelerated since the turn of the year, the bigger picture is that the economy is still struggling to cope with the... 25th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly 2014 will be as good as it gets for New Zealand The outlook for New Zealand remains stronger than the prognosis for Australia. Nonetheless, the 3.0% rise in GDP in New Zealand last year will mark the peak of the current cycle. We expect that the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4) New Zealand ended last year on a strong note, but the details of the GDP release for the fourth quarter support our view that this year will be a very different story. We expect growth to slow from 3... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the US Fed mean for Australia and New Zealand Any rise in government bond yields in Australia and New Zealand triggered by the US Fed taking a step closer to raising rates is likely to be temporary, while any weakening in the exchange rates of... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the New Zealand dollar remain overvalued? The New Zealand dollar’s real effective exchange rate (REER) is currently almost 18% above its average of the past ten years. On this metric it has been one of the most overvalued developed market... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand is vulnerable to Australian slowdown The hit to New Zealand’s exports from the economic slowdown in Australia is going to be felt at almost the exact same time as the boost to activity from the domestic construction boom starts to fade... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to shift from neutral to reverse later this year The Reserve Bank of Australia can’t have its cake and eat it. The only way to ensure that the Australian dollar weakens, which would support the real economy, is to reduce interest rates further, but... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Bucking the global trend…for now The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is odds on to buck the recent global trend by leaving its cash rate on hold at 3.5% in the announcement scheduled for Thursday 12th March. But if we are right in... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Was that it? The end of the so-called income recession late last year appears to suggest that the direct hit to the Australian economy from the fall in the prices of key commodity exports has already come and gone... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
