Global Markets Update Too soon to call the top in Russian equities Stock markets have fallen sharply around the world this week, but Russian equities have performed particularly badly. We think renewed gains are likely in the near term, but Russian stocks are likely... 29th October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer and business confidence starts to return (Oct 09) After collapsing across the board earlier in the year, consumer and business confidence indicators have rebounded sharply over the past six months. In some cases, they are approaching pre-crisis... 29th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should Prague and Warsaw office yields be more differentiated? Investors seem to have taken a broad-brush approach to pricing Prague and Warsaw office markets in recent years. Should there be more differentiation in pricing between these markets? We think that... 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw medium-term office rent prospects still good, despite falls The huge fall in Warsaw office rental values seen over the past year looks disproportionate relative to both the strength of the Polish economy and to developments elsewhere in Emerging Europe... 19th October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets still premature in pricing in rate hikes (Oct 09) Although monetary easing-cycles in much of the region are drawing to a close, we still do not expect rates to be hiked anywhere before the second half of 2010. Turkey is likely to be the first to... 16th October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Latvia’s Swan Song Although the severe recession in Latvia has caused the current account to swing back into surplus, the rebalancing of the economy is not complete. We think the real exchange rate still needs to fall... 2nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fiscal concerns coming to the fore (Sep 09) As deep recessions in the region have unfolded, all countries in Emerging Europe have experienced a sharp deterioration in their public finances. Some nations, particularly those that have turned to... 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Brighter outlook but still facing an uphill struggle (Q3 2009) We have nudged up our GDP forecasts for the region’s most open economies, predominantly those in Central Europe, in response to a modest improvement in the outlook for Western Europe. The inventory... 22nd September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Talk of rate hikes to prove premature (Sep 09) Although we have nudged up our growth forecasts for next year, we do not expect policymakers in the region to raise interest rates for some time. While Turkey and the Czech Republic are likely to be... 18th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prospects for Turkish property still weak in the short-term The Turkish economy returned to growth in 2009Q2. Accordingly, we have nudged up our GDP forecasts for this year and next. Yet we are not convinced that these revisions will be enough to reverse the... 18th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why have Polish industrial rental values been so resilient? Several factors have contributed to the resilience of industrial rental values in Poland. But downward pressure on Polish industrial rents continues to build and we do not think that more substantial... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Recession weighs on rental values (Sep 09) Weak occupier demand pushed rental values down in most markets. Investment activity was very subdued, particularly in Emerging Europe. Initial yields in Emerging Europe rose in all sectors while... 10th September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will deficit financing trigger a surge in Russian inflation? There are good reasons to think that monetisation of Russia’s budget deficit will not necessarily lead directly to a pick-up in inflation. But it adds to the downside risks facing the ruble. We expect... 4th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Polish expansion will be too weak to support rental values GDP data released late last week, suggest that the Polish economy may avoid recession this year. That suggests that the risks to our forecasts for a 45% peak-to-trough fall in capital values may now... 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q2 GDP data paint a mixed picture (Aug 09) While some economies managed to post quarterly growth in Q2, others continued to contract sharply. We think that there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious, even in those countries that appear... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Fiscal mess blots the outlook We estimate that limits on public debt set out in the Polish constitution will force the government to tighten fiscal policy by around 2.5% of GDP next year. What’s more, a further fiscal tightening... 21st August 2009 · 1 min read
