Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s ROM - not working as hoped The Turkish central bank’s much-vaunted “reserve option mechanism” doesn’t appear to have smoothed movements in the currency, as had been hoped. This means that the Bank may have to rely on more... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor No recovery in sight for EM exports The weakness of the global economy continues to keep export growth subdued across Emerging Markets (EMs). Even in Asia, where exports held up relatively well until very recently, growth in trade has... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey Q1 GDP reveals familiar vulnerabilities First quarter GDP growth in Turkey was stronger than expected, driven by an impressive turnaround in domestic demand. But the flipside of domestic demand-led growth is that the current account deficit... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weak Q1 GDP could add to market concerns The protests that have gripped Turkey over the past couple of weeks have come at a time when the country’s economic vulnerabilities appear to be mounting. This week, as well as the ongoing protests... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ignatiev keeps rates on hold in last CBR meeting Sergey Ignatiev ended his tenure as governor of the CBR by leaving key interest rates on hold today but, with inflation on course to fall over the second half of the year and Mr. Ignatiev’s successor... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How important has political stability been for Turkey's economy? Although it is difficult to draw a direct link between political stability and GDP growth, it does seem that better governance has played a key role in attracting the inflows of foreign capital that... 7th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Czech industrial rents about to pick up? Recent Czech data seem to show that activity in the external sector is on the up. That bodes well for Czech industrial property. But the domestic economy is still fragile and demand from consumer... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP breakdown provides glimmer of hope The breakdown of Q1 GDP across Emerging Europe showed that the region’s economy is probably in a slightly better shape than the (weak) headline growth figures would suggest. Accordingly, we think that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Construction points to weak EM investment Construction has started the year on a weak note across the emerging world and particularly in those EMs that most need to raise their investment rates, notably Brazil and Russia. This adds weight to... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latvia is still no role model for the euro-zone periphery Today’s convergence report by the EC, which gave the green light to Latvia to join the euro-zone in 2014, is likely to lead to further suggestions that Latvia serves as a role model of “internal... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates to stay below 3% until 2015 Following today’s cut in Polish interest rates, Governor Belka gave few hints about the likelihood of further easing. We think it’s most likely that interest rates will be left on hold at 2.75% over... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: May's rise in inflation to postpone rate cuts The sharp increase in Russian inflation in May means that interest rates are likely to be left on hold when Russian central bankers meet next week. However, inflation continues to be driven by food... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey's external risks While Turkish asset prices have regained some of their lost ground today, the outbreak of protests over the past few days has re-focused attention on the country’s economic vulnerabilities. In... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing downturn deepens The 25% year-on-year rise in equity prices in advanced economies, combined with rising property prices in some countries, should provide a boost to household consumption. However, we suspect the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing EM government debt dynamics High public debt and large budget deficits mean that the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Hungary need to tighten fiscal policy. Moreover, despite appearing healthy, the public finances of some... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturing showing signs of revival May’s PMIs provided some encouraging signs that manufacturing in Central Europe is turning the corner, helped by stronger demand from Germany. Worryingly though, the data indicate that the Turkish... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
