EM Markets Chart Pack How will EM corporate spreads react to higher US rates? Although underlying Treasury yields have risen since the end of March, dollar-denominated corporate bond yields have fallen in all emerging market regions, owing to a sharp fall in credit spreads. We... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1) The best that can be said about Q1 GDP data from Russia is that the economy has avoided outright collapse and is, instead, merely on the cusp of recession. Although financial market conditions have... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Republic & Poland GDP (Q1) First quarter GDP data from Poland and the Czech Republic add to evidence suggesting that, while most other EMs have slowed since the start of this year, those in Central Europe have strengthened. 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s Polish CPI data, which showed that consumer prices fell by 1.1% y/y compared with a drop of 1.5% y/y in March, should ease lingering concerns that deflation might become entrenched. But today... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of winners from China’s rebalancing While it isn’t hard to find EMs that have been hurt by the slowdown in China, identifying winners from the positive aspects of its rebalancing – such as rapid growth in household spending – has proved... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2015) The outlook for consumers has remained bright in large parts of the emerging world. In particular, consumption looks set to grow strongly in Central Europe and Emerging Asia over the coming months. In... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s inflation problem likely to get worse We have been warning about the deep-rooted drivers of Turkish inflation for some time, and it now looks like energy prices will compound the problem by pushing the headline rate even further above the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hungarian property capital values ready for lift-off The Hungarian economy stands to see above-trend growth rates in the coming years, supporting occupier demand. With the prospects for rental values turning positive, yields look cheap on a historical... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Hungary, Romania & Slovakia GDP (Q1) The stronger-than-expected preliminary first quarter GDP estimates out of Hungary, Romania and Slovakia are particularly encouraging in light of the slowdown in the German economy. All in all, the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the rise in EM bond yields The sell-off in the bond market in developed economies that grabbed the headlines over the past few weeks has also hit emerging markets but, so far at least, it does not provide much cause for concern... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Curr. Acc. (Mar.) & Czech CPI (Apr.) Turkey’s higher-than-expected current account deficit figure for March provides further evidence that weak exports have almost entirely offset the benefit to the economy from lower oil prices. And the... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Return of Russian wheat to put more pressure on prices With food price inflation appearing to have peaked and the economy probably already in recession, Russia is unlikely to extend its export tax on wheat. Although the authorities may leave the door open... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show Russia in recession, Central Europe resilient The raft of preliminary first quarter GDP data set to be released this week across Emerging Europe should confirm that the Russian economy fell into recession, but that growth in Central Europe was... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdown – why this time is different According to our GDP Tracker, EM growth has now fallen to a low last seen in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis and, prior to that, the 2001-02 Argentine crisis. However, the causes... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Mar.) & Hungary CPI (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected 4.7% y/y rise in Turkish industrial production in March provides much-needed good news for President Erdogan ahead of next month’s election. But even so, growth in industry... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC turns a little less dovish The press release accompanying the Czech National Bank’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate and the exchange rate ceiling were left unchanged, was dovish but less so than in March. As a result... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
