Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018 The Russian central bank’s 25bp cut in its policy interest rate (to 7.50%) today was smaller than we had anticipated, but the decision was accompanied by a very dovish statement that paves the way for... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM credit spreads likely to rise further EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The decline in Russian inflation to just 2.2% y/y last month, coming alongside weakness in the latest hard activity data and dovish comments from central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, means we now... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: fiscal plans point to diverging growth prospects The widening of budget deficits in Hungary and Romania means that the loose fiscal policy pursued in recent years is set to come to an end in 2018. Growth is likely to slow (sharply in the case of... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM governments and the great bond sell-off EM governments with the largest financing needs are, in theory at least, most vulnerable to a global spike in bond yields. This includes Egypt, Brazil, South Africa and India. However, it’s worth... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Turkish inflation fell to a lower-than-expected 10.3% y/y last month, from 11.9% y/y in December, and is likely to edge down further over the rest of this year. Even so, with the headline rate likely... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI dips but from high levels The latest EM aggregate PMI from Markit dipped in January but nonetheless remains consistent with solid rates of output growth in most regions. The dip in the headline figure was driven by a fall back... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s economies made a strong start to the year. The surveys indicate that Russia’s economic recovery should resume over the... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth loses steam in Q4 Our estimates for aggregate EM GDP growth suggest it hit a five-year high over 2017 as a whole, but there are signs that growth slowed in the final quarter of last year. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that growth in the region as a whole may have picked up even further at the start of this year, to about 5.5-5.8% y/y... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to drift higher EM inflation remained steady in the final few months of last year, but we think it will drift up over the course of 2018. Higher oil prices will feed through into higher EM fuel inflation over the... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Car manufacturing weighing on Central European exports The Central European economies have enjoyed a period of strong economic growth, but exports have been a relative (and perhaps surprising) weak spot. This appears to reflect a general weakening of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Cycle to turn in 2018 Most economies in Emerging Europe had a very strong end to 2017, but we expect regional growth to soften in the coming quarters. The economic cycle in Central Europe is now looking mature and growth... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s activity data for Russia suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole may have slowed to a disappointing 1.0% y/y, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. But conditions improved right at the end of last year... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
