Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again It’s been a very calm month for financial markets in most of Emerging Europe. One exception, however, is Ukraine where renewed tensions with Russia have caused the currency to weaken and dollar bond... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery resumes Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after a brief pause in May, the recovery in EM growth resumed in June. The latest improvement has been driven by a pick-up in activity in Emerging Asia and Latin... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The declines in the Economic Sentiment Indicators this month in Central and Eastern Europe support our view that growth in these economies is likely to weaken in the coming quarters. But the strength... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Industrial rents in Emerging Europe stabilise Stronger economic growth in Q2 helped to prevent further falls in the majority of prime retail and industrial rents across the central and eastern European region. Rents may, therefore, have found a... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse We expect food inflation in large parts of the EM world to ease in the coming months, which will provide some relief to policymakers in a number of high inflation economies, including Russia, Colombia... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Some signs of a slowdown at the start of Q3 The raft of second quarter GDP figures for Emerging Europe released this month painted a relatively bright picture, as regional growth hit a two-year high of 1.5% y/y. However, some of the more timely... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be concerned about EM equities again? We continue to expect emerging market (EM) equities to rise further in the next couple of years, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. But the rally has fizzled out in recent days, and we suspect... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional recovery to disappoint, rates to come down Growth across Emerging Europe is likely to pick up in 2017-18, but it will be softer than most anticipate. While the region’s largest economy, Russia, will return to positive growth in the coming... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts in Hungary could come back onto the cards The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, looks through dire inflation outlook The decision by the Turkish MPC to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp, to 8.5%, provides further evidence that the Council is paying scant regard to its inflation target and more... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Lower bond yields counteract falling property yields Property yields fell again in Q2 as demand for prime property remained strong. But, with mostbond yields falling in the second quarter, property still looks fairly valued. 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The weak Polish activity data for July, which point to GDP growth slowing sharply to 2.5% y/y at the start of Q3, were distorted by working-day effects. Even so, the underlying trend seems to be one... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turnaround in industry supporting EM recovery After a prolonged downturn, there are early signs that EM industry is finally starting to turn a corner. Our measure of EM industrial production growth picked up to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.2% in May... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity data for July suggest that the economy weakened a touch at the start of Q3, but we still think it’s likely that the recovery will resume over the rest of the year. Indeed, there was... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2) The slightly stronger-than-expected Czech Q2 GDP growth figure, of 2.5% y/y, reinforces our view that, while the economy is likely to slow a little further in the coming quarters, the strength of... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
